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the preamble perhaps. the conflict that sets the stage.
fml, the idea that putin/bibi/trump ally so closely in their desire to destroy their own countries, and xi is like: let's make more terawatts of solar power and help cuba - the world is stranger and darker every day.
ebola may finally hit globally, thanks to stupid cuts at cdc/who/usaid
and then there's taiwan... just sitting there, all tempting, and the US having expended tremendous amounts of our arsenal for the iranian folly.... gee whiz...
I agree, it has yet to devolve into a full scale world war, but I wouldn't be surprised if China makes a move on Taiwan by 2030.
China will conquer Taiwan from within, same as they vanquished America from the #1 world slot.
Propaganda, won't even have to fire a shot.
if they could ever do that, don't you think they'd have done it already?
do you have any evidence to support the idea that taiwanese attitudes have changed?
Dude you're totally right. If someone hasn't done something yet, then they're never ever going to do that.
Insightful.
it's a genuine inquiry about your response - China has long desired to recapture their 'lost' island (never was theirs but set that aside) and continues to run all kinds of pressure campaigns from political interference in Taiwanese government to artillery attacks on the outlying islands to pressuring the vast majority of the world to ignore their existence.
Taiwan has shown incredible resilience over decades and decades.
Now, if Trump robs them of the support and legitimacy, throws them to the wolves, all bets are off. Perhaps Taipei sees the writing on the wall - but man, I don't see that going well either. Hong Kong illustrated - there is no separate peace, you get china, you get chinese rule and it's not light handed.
It's a shit sandwich, and the US has made it all worse with the iran bullshit draining our magazines, fleet deployments, and most importantly, resolve to stand up for our allies.
I'd be amazed if they wait that long. It would give us a chance to rebuild stockpiles.
I don't think Taipei is at risk tomorrow, but holy hell this is gonna be a fraught year....