this post was submitted on 13 Nov 2025
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I wouldn't call a 1 in 10 chance likely. The title seems rather clickbaity
Imagine you're going to have a surgery and the doctor tells you there's 10% chance it will go wrong and you will lose your dick. What would you say about your chances?
Ask Elon.
That it's a big risk, but not likely.
Interesting. I would say that if it's unlikely then the risk is small. I would also say 10% is pretty likely. For drugs 1-10% chance of a side effect means it's a common side effect.
To me likely means >50%
So I've check and 'likely' can be defined as "Within the realm of credibility; plausible."/" Possessing or displaying the qualities or characteristics that make something probable." which I would say makes 10% likely but also as "having a high probability of occurring or being true : very probable" which would make 10% unlikely. Depends on which dictionary you check :)
That there's a 10% chance.
You're technically correct. The best kind of correct.
Imagine every time you flip a coin there's a 10% chance you get free ice cream.
I'd call that one in ten chances.