I mean, the point is to use stock-market-like mechanisms to predict the future. If we want to know if Trump will talk about crypto, and someone plunks down $10,000 saying he will, then either that person is an idiot who will soon lose their money, or else we can be decently confident that Trump will talk about crypto. The fact that someone who actually knew what Trump was going to talk about put a bunch of money down on what Trump would talk about isn't a flaw in the system - it's the point.
Why would people bet on the site, then? Well, for most people, because they are dumb and like gambling. But for more knowledgeable and sober-minded people, because they have a reasonable expectation that they will make money. Mr Teleprompter, for example, knew for certain he would make money here, so he placed his bets. But if he's smart, he will walk away and buy a boat or something (actually, don't buy a boat - thats the opposite of smart), rather than taking his winnings to bet on the outcome of the world cup.
I mean, the point is to use stock-market-like mechanisms to predict the future. If we want to know if Trump will talk about crypto, and someone plunks down $10,000 saying he will, then either that person is an idiot who will soon lose their money, or else we can be decently confident that Trump will talk about crypto. The fact that someone who actually knew what Trump was going to talk about put a bunch of money down on what Trump would talk about isn't a flaw in the system - it's the point.
Why would people bet on the site, then? Well, for most people, because they are dumb and like gambling. But for more knowledgeable and sober-minded people, because they have a reasonable expectation that they will make money. Mr Teleprompter, for example, knew for certain he would make money here, so he placed his bets. But if he's smart, he will walk away and buy a boat or something (actually, don't buy a boat - thats the opposite of smart), rather than taking his winnings to bet on the outcome of the world cup.
You can also use it to hedge against risk as a normal person way easier than derivatives... But I doubt that's what 99% of people are using it for.
The fun part is when you understand the cia and NSA have run their own intelligence prediction market and have for quite some time.