this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2026
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Only two countries have demonstrated air launched rockets that can destroy satellites on orbit, the USA and Russia. There is good speculation that China has built anti-satellites satellites, but no one is aware of any actual proven test.
Here's the USA's anti-satellite rocket being launched on its one and only test:
Now, lets assume that all 3 countries decide they want to attack Starlink satellites at once with all their weapons. Perhaps they destroy 30 satellites in total. As of November 2025 the Starlink network surpassed 10,000 satellites in orbit. As for replacing the lost satellites, a single launch places 25 to 28 satellites in orbit at a time. Within the next 24 hours 25 more Starlink satellites will be launched:
In 4 days, another launch is occurring that will place 24 more Starlink satellites in orbit.
source
So destroying a few dozen Starlink satellites might cause a slight blip in coverage for maybe a few minutes tops in specific narrow geographic locations, but only for a little while until replacements move to positions.
Destroying a few dozen satellites would probably kickstart a Kessler síndrome.
Maybe, but not guaranteed. Starlink satellites aren't very big (meaning not very large pieces if they blow up). Additionally, Starlink satellites have active avoidance systems that can "dodge" debris to a degree (its slow, but space is big). Lastly, because the pieces would be small, they'd experience more atmospheric drag and fall back to Earth faster. Whether that means weeks instead of years, I don't know.
It's hard to predict the outcome in such a chaotic event but starlink alone already does 100k+ collision avoidance maneuvers each year (can't remember the exact number but is more than one every 2 minutes). It's highly unlikely that we would be able to accurately track the newly formed debris of dozens of satellites blowing up and adjust the orbit of (potentially) hundreds of satellites in a few minutes.