this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2026
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[–] Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 2 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

Luck is a factor, but the differentiator is that they have the. Isplaced confidence and drive to just do what they want first. Then the luck let's them get away with it. It's kind of like if you get a million people to flip a coin 50 times. Some of them will get all 50 to be heads. So with billions of people in the world. Some have this drive to be on top, misplaced confidence, luck, and situational oportunities (also a good part luck) to end up able to sign 250 million dollar contract. None of that actually requires they have a clue. Sometimes they do, but it isn't required.

[–] ltxrtquq@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

if you get a million people to flip a coin 50 times. Some of them will get all 50 to be heads.

Flipping a coin 50 times has 1.1 quadrillion possible outcomes, only 2 of which are all heads or all tails. I think you'd need more than a few billion to reliably see those results.

[–] rumba@lemmy.zip 1 points 38 minutes ago

yeah that's over a one in a billion chance to get all heads in just a million tries.

[–] Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 1 points 39 minutes ago (1 children)

I think though, you get the point.

Now here is a bonus question for you. If I give you a coin and ask you to flip it 20 times, and they all come up heads. What are the odds that if you flip it again it will come up heads?

[–] wabasso@lemmy.ca 1 points 32 minutes ago

I think it’s higher than a 50% chance of heads, because you have evidence for it being an unfair coin.