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AGI can't come from these LLMs because they are non-sensing, stationary, and fundamentally not thinking at all.
AGI might be coming down the pipe, but not from these LLM vendors. I hope a player like Numenta, or any other nonprofit, open-source initiative manages to create AGI so that it can be a positive force in the world, rather than a corporate upward wealth transfer like most tech.
It is like raising a baby.
Machine Learning is like teaching computers how to learn new things.
Large Language Models is like teaching computers how to speak.
On its own it won't do much, it is only a small step. But a necessary one to reach the fully formed being that is an AGI.
(these are analogies, I don't believe in fully sentient AI ~yet~)
Intelligence and consciousness are not related in the way you seem to think.
We've always known that you can have consciousness without a high level of intelligence (think of children, people with certain types of brain damage), and now for the first time, LLMs show us that you can have intelligence without consciousness.
It's naive to think that as we continue to develop intelligent machines, suddenly one of them will become conscious once it reaches a particular level of intelligence. Did you suddenly become conscious once you hit the age of 14 or whatever and had finally developed a deep enough understanding of trigonometry or a solid enough grasp of the works of Mark Twain? No of course not, you became conscious at a very early age, when even a basic computer program could outsmart you, and you developed intelligence quite independently.