Technology

I have been trying to make sense of all AI Capex announcements for a while and I don't get it. So please help me out if you know the answer.

US Investment in 2024 ~$400b, 2025 ~$500b, 2026 ~600. Global investment 2026 1.5~$2.2t. Let's say $2t US Investment by end of 2026. Investment will continue into the future but let's assume that is not the case. Also that GPU will be obsolete in 5y. So, they have 60m to recoup $2t +ROI ~10%. So about $40b a month, US has a labor force of 170m. Thus, AI industry needs the equivalent of ~$240 per month per each employee. I don't see myself or my employer paying this for AI any time soon.

since his bet on the housing market he effectively lost money. all the public things he made can also be safety investments in case his secret hedgefund stuff he doesn't have to disclose fails.

• this is what an ex-financebro told me yesterday

i LOVE LOVE LOVE the thought of the AI Bubble popping... but i don't think this MF is the guy to trust

Now if it never pops at least it's funny that he lost a bunch of money

Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.

We may have to wait for another three years.

I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.

Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.

My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I'm going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon's numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.

I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it's just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I'd rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.

*not a FA, just my personal plan

his fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir (...) Palantir’s market cap is also up over 150 percent year-to-date. Its current valuation is upwards of 200 times its forward earnings, spreading fears that it may be grossly overvalued.

He knows which one is more likely to get really fucked in this bubble and it's not the shovel seller

Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse.

Can we assume his puts aren't for 2026, but at least 2028 or later?

As CNN points out, Burry’s track record isn’t perfect. For instance, he called in January 2023 to “sell” in a now infamous tweet

Something something irrational solvent something

Palantir CEO Alex Karp: "The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money,"

One of the companies is making all the money and it's not Palantir.