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Think it's time you watched Dr Strangelove
There was the hope of an uprising from the Iranian people, but 30 thousand protestors killed, and now a response to this war, seems less likely at this point.
Two future timelines I currently see as possibilities:
Or
Trump issued a threat to Iran before negotiations started that he fully intended to carry out regardless. He then launched a series of missile attacks against Iran with the stated goal of regime change and the cooperation of Israel. Iran's leadership was hit in the early bombings, but they had been preparing for an attack and launched counteroffensives against US bases all over the region, and closed a vital oil shipping route.
Trumps administration is unhinged and vile, so the early targets also included a girls school and many other civilian targets. Hegseth has been going on rants about how there will be no rules. Congress for their part, came together to fail at enacting a war powers resolution that would have made this ?more? Illegal. True bipartisanship in action. For their part many European states have followed suit, by either tacitly endorsing the war or simply refusing to note that the US and Israel are the obvious aggressors. Spain being a bright spot on that front.
Irans's attacks have been expanding as the US keeps attacking. They seem focused on building pressure internationally to end the war, but are also hitting places that are supporting or housing US or Israeli troops.
For the why, its hard to say. This is a confluence of the entire US political classes obsession with provoking war in the middle east. Schumer, Graham, and the bipartisan warpigs are doing everything they can to justify the war or slow people trying to stop it. Trump for his part is barely there mentally, but has floated war with Iran as a solution to dire political numbers before. He also just seized a bunch of oil from Venezuela and might see the oil supply crisis as an opportunity to profit. There is no motive too low to consider tbh. Worth considering how much is really Trump and how much is Stephen Miller puppeting the gilded meat sack around.
Israels imperial ambitions are also not to be discounted and they've been pushing for this for ages.
Let's not forget that Trump has been attacking Iran since his first term. In November 2018, he unilaterally reäpplied sanctions, violating the antinuclear treaty, despite Iran appearing to have been fulfilling their end of the bargain. As Britain and France desperately tried to get the treaty back on track, Trump had Qassem Solameini assassinated in early 2020. That would have been the biggest news of the year, and likely would have led to a full-on war with Iran, if we didn't all have to go into lockdown a few months later.
People say this is a distraction from the Epstein files, but I doubt that is more than a minor factor. Trump has had it in for Iran for years. The far more likely conspiracy is that he wants a war so he can declare martial law and be president for life. Even so, what's more likely is that Trump is doing fascist action for the sake of action.
As for "what will happen next", the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don't seem to want to make that kind of deal.
So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.
This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn't popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.
Trump will lose the war with Iran ,one way or another