No Stupid Questions

Trump issued a threat to Iran before negotiations started that he fully intended to carry out regardless. He then launched a series of missile attacks against Iran with the stated goal of regime change and the cooperation of Israel. Iran's leadership was hit in the early bombings, but they had been preparing for an attack and launched counteroffensives against US bases all over the region, and closed a vital oil shipping route.

Trumps administration is unhinged and vile, so the early targets also included a girls school and many other civilian targets. Hegseth has been going on rants about how there will be no rules. Congress for their part, came together to fail at enacting a war powers resolution that would have made this ?more? Illegal. True bipartisanship in action. For their part many European states have followed suit, by either tacitly endorsing the war or simply refusing to note that the US and Israel are the obvious aggressors. Spain being a bright spot on that front.

Irans's attacks have been expanding as the US keeps attacking. They seem focused on building pressure internationally to end the war, but are also hitting places that are supporting or housing US or Israeli troops.

For the why, its hard to say. This is a confluence of the entire US political classes obsession with provoking war in the middle east. Schumer, Graham, and the bipartisan warpigs are doing everything they can to justify the war or slow people trying to stop it. Trump for his part is barely there mentally, but has floated war with Iran as a solution to dire political numbers before. He also just seized a bunch of oil from Venezuela and might see the oil supply crisis as an opportunity to profit. There is no motive too low to consider tbh. Worth considering how much is really Trump and how much is Stephen Miller puppeting the gilded meat sack around.

Israels imperial ambitions are also not to be discounted and they've been pushing for this for ages.

Trump seizes control of the oil production in Venezuela, then attacks Iran causing them to block the strait of Hormuz and oil prices to skyrocket. Profit.

Trump and his staffers are desperately trying to find a way to TACO but still somehow claim victory like his other two expeditions in Venezuela and Iran (2025), because it clearly didn't have the effect they thought it would have like when Bush II did it.

Unlike the US, Iranian forces had a plan that was formulated for years. Doesn't mean things will go as they envision, due to US, Israeli, Gulf state, and internal factors putting a lot of uncertainty in the mix. Iran is okay with the current situation in the short term (again unlike the US), but there is elevated risk for a potential coup, an Israeli-style drawn out genocide and annexation, just a stalemate war of air defense attrition, or who knows what in Iran. There will be pressure from all sides to figure something amicable between the belligerents, hopefully sooner than later.

I predict: Oil/gas prices will stay high for months, air ship and truck transportation costs will be somewhat higher and goods will be a little higher for the same period. Over the next year, governments, businesses and people will turn to electricity and renewables pretty much out of necessity (look at Indian residents turning to Induction Stoves in droves) that will lower our needs for fuel which will hopefully offset the shock from future oil supply crunches. Optimistically, it could accelerate the world's efforts to net zero.

There was the hope of an uprising from the Iranian people, but 30 thousand protestors killed, and now a response to this war, seems less likely at this point.

Two future timelines I currently see as possibilities:

1. The US will pull back, mostly to support Israel and protect transport ships, occasionally firing long distant strikes. (an unlikely best case scenario)

Or

2. A lingering war that will continue through to next presidential election, and used as an excuse to not leave the role as potus. (a more likely horrible scenario)