This for if an election was held tomorrow, one nation would be just behind labor on primary vote count, like number of people putting ON at the top of their ballot

it doesn't look good but it's not too bad because we have a decent electoral system so the actual result would look closer to this:

As well as a conventional two-party preferred figure that has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last fortnight, there is a Labor-versus-One Nation result that has Labor leading 55-45

https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/02/11/federal-polls-yougov-and-roy-morgan-open-thread/

The 2024 election had TPP Labor: 55.22% to 44.78% Liberal

So really no change but it is amazing ON has had so many people flick over to it from the coalition