this post was submitted on 21 Apr 2025
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Funny I was pondering the same thing. What would Trump do if Nvidia moved to somewhere outside US jurisdiction?
It's very serious for Nvidia to lose about 45% of their revenue. But they also need to keep their development teams running.
Can they do that if they move?
https://asymmetric-investing.beehiiv.com/p/nvidia-s-china-problem-big-tech-s-new-headwind
But this is really serious for Nvidia! As far as I can figure it's about $33 billion profits in a year they stand to lose!!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Based on market cap and P/E.
I think if NVIDIA moves outside of the US, Trump would have no choice but to keep exempting their products from the import tariffs since there's no US-made alternative at the moment and there won't be one for a while. But NVIDIA may not have a choice but to move out, especially if they want to keep their market position against Chinese firms over the long run. If they stay in the US they face a likely future of being locked into the US market with the rest of the world being dominated by whatever competitive accelerators come out of China. If they move out, and especially if they move to China, they could become the CCP-blessed domestic AI hardware maker, before another Chinese firm is able to get there. They'll have the world market to export to as well as the US, for as long as the US doesn't have a competitive product. After that it'll be just the rest of the world since China's NVIDIA product would always have price advantage compared to US offerings. Of course under a China NVIDIA scenario they likely won't be able to keep their IP fully closed or their profit margins within China, and perhaps abroad.
There is a problem though, if they move to China they can't produce at TSMC. That is why I stated outside US jurisdiction. Apart from that I agree.
True. That's a problem with the China route at this point. In a few years however I'd expect SMIC to be competitive with TSMC. They're doing their damnest to get there and given the pressure and resources thrown at it, I think it's a matter of time.