this post was submitted on 25 Apr 2026
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It can't only be from data from previous generations, even if the initial demonstration used that, because that would mean a single piece of human-generated text is sufficient to avoid collapse.
The loss of data from generation to generation is one way model collapse can occur, but it's only one way. The actual issues that cause collapse are replication of errors and increasing data homogeneity. In a world where an unknown quantity of new data is AI generated, it is not possible to ensure only a certain quantity is used as future training data.
Additionally, as new human generated content is based on the information provided by AI, even if not used intentionally in the construction of the text itself, the error replication and data diversity issues cross over from being only an AI-generated content problem to an all content problem. You can see examples of this happening now in the media where a journalist relies on AI output to fact check, and then the article with the error gets republished by other media outlets.
Real AI training methods may stave off some model collapse, if we ignore existing issues around the cultural homogeneity of training data from across all time periods, or assume the models are sufficiently weighted to mitigate those issues, but it's by no means settled that collapse is a non-problem.
You've mentioned using data mixing to prevent collapse, but some of the research suggests that even iterative mixing isn't sufficient dependent on the quantities of real vs synthetic data. Strong Model Collapse (2024), Dohmatob, Feng, Subramonian, Kempe goes into that, and since then there's been When Models Don’t Collapse: On the Consistency of Iterative MLE (2025) Barzilai, Shamir which presents one theoretical case where collapse won't occur provided some assumptions hold, but the math is beyond me. They also note multiple situations where near-instant collapse can occur.
How much data poisoning might affect any of that is not at all clear, it would need to be in sufficient quantity for whatever model to have an effect, but it certainly wouldn't help. The recent Bixonimania scandal suggests it's feasible.
Alright, so instead of simply saying "include external data in your training run", extend that to "and also filter the data to exclude erroneous stuff." That's a routine part of curating training data in real-world AI training as well, I was already writing a lot so I didn't feel like adding more detail there would have enhanced it.
The basic point remains the same, that real world training accounts for the things that were necessary to force model collapse to happen in that old paper I linked. It's a solved problem. We can see that it's solved by the fact that AI models continue to get better, despite an increasing amount of AI-generated data being present in the world that training data is being drawn from. Indeed, most models these days use synthetic training data that is intentionally AI-generated.
A lot of people really want to believe that AI is going to just "go away" somehow, and this notion of model collapse is a convenient way to support that belief. So it's very persistent and makes for great clickbait. But it's just not so. If nothing else, the exact same training data that was used to create those earlier models is still around. AI models are never going to get worse than they are now because if they did get worse we'd just throw them out and go back to the earlier ones that worked better, perhaps re-training with the same data but better training techniques or model architectures.
Even if it logically followed that model improvement means model collapse is a solved problem, which it absolutely doesn't, even the premise that models are improving to a significant degree is up for debate.
Model collapse may for some people be an argument used to support a hope that AI will go away, but the reality of that hope does not alter the validity of the model collapse problem.
You can tell it's not a solved problem because researchers are still trying to quantify the risk and severity of collapse - as you can see even just from the abstracts in the links I provided.
Some choice excerpts from the abstracts, for those who don't want to click the links:
It's really interesting reading a conversion between somebody who knows what they're talking about, providing sources, and a known troll (FaceDeer) who can only go "nuh-uh" and complain about ghosts.