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AI won't replace everyone. Have you seen those police robots? At the end of the day, it will be a regular old cop arresting you for making trouble, don't worry.
People will loose money, the poor will get poorer, the rich will get richer. Some countries will become more fascist, others might become more sane. People will die, people will commit atrocities, people will fall in love and make more people, and the wheel keeps on turning.
Nobody has said that AI will replace everyone, except rhetorically. But it will replace MANY people, on an increasing basis, as each new iteration gets more powerful.
It won't take long before we have a PERMANENT double digit unemployment rate, and the government will gaslight us all into accepting that as normal, even as it rises to the 50% or more.
OP wrote:
which I replied to. LLMs won't replace all human workers, because for instance it cannot do manual labour. And to preemptively answer "but robots": industrial robots already exist since forever.
Of course industrial robots have always existed, but technology is much better now, and we have AI to power them now. These aren't your grandpappy's robots.
The combination of automation and AI is going to lead to the elimination of entire human powered industries. The technology currently exists to automate EVERY fast food outlet in the country, and every one of those companies already has a system ready to roll out. The only reason they haven't is because nobody wants to deal with the backlash when it happens. But once it does, the rest are going to follow, quickly. A lot of these jobs are first jobs, second household incomes, retirement supplements, etc. The loss of those jobs will be felt deeply.
How many people are supplementing their income with driving a ride share? How many older workers are doing that after losing their jobs? Both Uber and Lyft make it very clear on their website that they intend to replace their ENTIRE fleets with autonomous vehicles, which are nothing more than AI powered robots. These are people who aren't on the unemployment rolls because they have managed to scrape together driving to work. Without this, they go right back to being on the unemployment rolls.
I just saw a report on autonomous trucks, predicting 170,000 on the roads with a few years. That's 170,000 lost truck driving jobs. What are those professional drivers going to pivot to?
AI/ Automation won't replace every job, but we will eventually have to live with a permanent unemployment rate over 50%, and if they could figure out to replace EVERY job, they would, enthusiastically.
I forgot that the US is a dystopian hellscape where many people work what would have been a college summer job a couple of decades ago just to get by, my bad.
Sarcasm aside, self driving cars are actually a good example. It is a rather controlled environment, with standardised signs and rules, and billions upon billions of r&d money thrown into it for decades now. And they barely, mostly, just kind of start to work.
Fun fact, there is a fully automated, commercial pizza vending machine in my city. Kind of neat, from a tech stand point. I still don't see it replacing all the pizza places.
The things that do cost jobs will probably surprise us now. 20 years ago, people were demo-ing the automated supermarket, and we just recently saw large scale retailers adopting self scan / scan as you shop and that stuff. And while it does eliminate some jobs, you still need some human to stop shoplifters, clear errors, figure out what to do with the dropped, cracked milk crate, check that those minors are not getting liquor with their brother's driving license and so on.