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Altman can try to hype up how everyones going to subscribe to them someday all the while their subscriber base is being eaten up by competitors.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-projects-chatgpt-plus-subscriptions-to-drop-by-80-from-44-million-in-2025-to-9-million-in-2026-made-up-using-cheaper-subscriptions-somehow/
Local stuff. I still believe the small parameter, ~1B free local, ones will suffice for the vast majority of how people use LLMs and there's still going to be a few years of improvements there until investments dry up. Eventually I bet more and more phone companies will include one of these small ones out the box. Pretty much like a nice search engine that works offline like if you're out on a major hike. Cloud stuff, there'll be stuff like Proton's Lumo where they're taking free open weight stuff and piecing them together for users.
OpenAI's thing is they'll make up for falling subscribers with advertising. So pretty much we're advancing fast in the search engine race of the 90s/early aughts. We'll at least have Gemini. ChatGPT maybe ends up crashes in value someday and bought up by Microsoft or some other company. Deepseek, Qwen, Kimi. Claude like ChatGPT maybe survices or crashes and gets adsorbed by another company. Proton continue to exist as the company making AI products out of free stuff. Eventually the pace of improvements moves at a crawl and it's pointless to be paying for the best paywalled stuff. Just use the free stuff like how everyone mostly uses free search engines
Agree. And re small models - very agree. In fact I made a ablated version of Qwen 3.5-2B for use with my pi, before thinking a bit harder and realising I can probably code something bespoke that doesn't need a stochastic parrot as a squwake box at all.
https://huggingface.co/BobbyLLM/polaris-heretic-Q4_K_M-GGUF
Still, as a SLM, it's perfectly cromulent and does well with tool calling etc which is what I wanted it for.