they can only do two things now: full scorched earth or capitulate

Why? Dragging this out only helps Iran. Every day the US oil reserves fall further, and Iran makes more missiles and drones and tunnels, and the Gulf States get angrier with Trump for messing up their economies.

Iran doesn't even have to do tit-for-tat attacks or stop every single tanker. They just have to hit enough ships that no one wants to risk crossing without their permission, and prevent the US from returning to and repairing its bases. Both of which they have shown themselves capable of doing.