this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2026
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[–] Folstar@lemmus.org 37 points 1 day ago (22 children)

We ain't seen nothing yet. In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past. There will also be a wave of resignations from people who cash out and if that takes key people then investors back off even further. My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out. He has borrowed billions from people you wouldn't want to owe $1 and been delaying and juggling for a few years with tacking together this SpaceX nonsense amalgamation.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 16 points 1 day ago (16 children)

In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past.

When you consider the kind of life changing amounts of money even a few thousand shares sell for at current rates, they'd be crazy not to.

My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out

It's fallen maybe 12% since the IPO. You're talking about shares that were trading for a few bucks during the original debt offerings. Marc Andressen has something like a 6000% ROI on his holdings even at current prices.

If this company dropped by 50%, it would still be worth in the $800B range. There's no world in which current shareholders don't make fuckoff amounts of profit. The only question is whether we're talking nine figures or ten.

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 3 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

here’s no world in which current shareholders don’t make fuckoff amounts of profit.

Well some of the shareholders, clearly none of the peope who had to wait for the IPO are going to make some unless they managed to sell off in the 4 days after IPO.

Beyond that, we don't know that much about the pre-IPO costs and how low it can go for them to still make out like bandits.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 1 points 12 hours ago

none of the peope who had to wait for the IPO are going to make some unless they managed to sell off in the 4 days after IPO.

Fully unironically know a few folks who did exactly that. Got in at $135 and sold on the way up to $200, because it's insane to hold a company with a P/E of... 1000x? Something stupid like that.

we don’t know that much about the pre-IPO costs

We know what firms like Thiel's Founder's Fund and Andressen Horowitz paid for minority positions during the earlier funding rounds (Series A -J and assorted debt swaps). And we also know what a few of the outsider funds - EchoStar, for instance - paid for advanced shares shortly before the public offering. There were definitely some deals that were worse than others (the July 2025 Tender at $212/share was EchoStar, the December 2025 Tender at $421/share was to the company's own employees as well as some other earlier investors).

Even then, the volume of shares sold was miniscule compared to shares outstanding.

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