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Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
(www.techpowerup.com)
this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2026
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This of course assumes the bubble doesn't pop, and is presumably driven by memory purchase contracts with AI companies consuming all supply at peak pricing with 5-year terms. If OpenAI or Anthropic run out of investor money tomorrow, those contracts will be worthless and supply will recover (even if HBM capacity can't be instantly reconfigured to consumer).
While I don't expect it tomorrow, OpenAI has signaled a future of constant price increases with their new $500 monthly tier replacing their $200 tier, and it's likely we're in the start of the death spiral as subsidized supply ends, demand plummets in response, and unprofitable companies start folding. But the AI market market has remained irrational for much longer than it should have.
(Just a reminder to roll back your overclocks while we huddle for warmth during tech winter.)
My youtube algorithm is filled with AI doom/truthsayers and it feels like everybody else is taking crazy pills. Ed Zitron is a bit theatric but there's nothing factually wrong with his arguments. Eli the Computer guy explains it in plain language that would be easily refutable should a refutation exist. I'm not shorting anything but I'm certainly not going out of my way to add any funds with significant exposure to AI companies.
The hidden variable is how much money can the us treasury print to keep the ai bubble going. Nobody knows that, could be one trillion more and the system collapsed, could be maybe the debt needs to double to $80T before collapse.
At this point, with trump and the tech billionaires in charge, they're just going to keep printing money until they can't.
It's definitely barreling towards us... I'm hoping it's a disatrous OpenAI IPO that does it, because it's easy enough to understand, but it will probably be a chain reaction starting from some minor event that is gonna take a 5-hour Youtube to fully explain.
I wish Jenny Nicholson was on this beat.