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For multiple years it's been "any minute now!"
Every real estate agent, every mortgage broker, could see the fraud in the housing market long by 2003, but either didn't recognize it as fraud at the time, or didn't care. They were all making money hand over fist to prop it up.
Zero down payment, 110% LTV mortgages, seller-paid closing costs, buyer is receiving a $3000 check at closing? ARM set to triple their rate in a year? Completely absurd, but the agent is only getting paid if the deal closes. The mortgage broker is only getting paid if the deal closes. The lender is only getting paid if the deal closes. The seller is only getting paid if the deal closes. Everyone needed this deal to close, so they did what it took to close the deal.
Lenders were offering "Continuing Education" credits that RE agents needed for their licenses. That "continuing education" consisted of seminars coaching agents to encourage these deals.
By 2003, buyers were underwater with their mortgages as soon as they signed them. Yet it took 5 more years for the bubble to actually burst.
The circular financing ponzi scheme behind AI will survive until someone can't service debt. What happens then is either the collapse of the whole scheme, or the government declaring them "too big to fail" and allowing them to reorganize into a single corporate entity.
So exactly like an AGI emerging after just one more update.
I enjoyed how someone put it:
“Just one more round of funding, bro.”
I mean, AI is getting genuinely terrifying.