this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2026
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How long has AI been “teetering on the brink“?
Most of the historical boondoggles took about 5 years to work their way out. We are on year 3. If that's any guide, we got a whole lot more electric boogaloo left to play.
Most boondoggles don't burn trillions of dollars. AI is starting to hit a wall already because there just isn't any more money. It's why there's this desperate push to go public even though their financials are a dumpster fire.
"We must keep building stone heads!" Easter Island civilization
"We must keep building datacenters!" Epstein Island civilization
As a percentage of Capex to GDP it's about a third of the way to where the railway mania was at during its peak. There's room to run. The difference between then and now is that all the spending is concentrated in a handful of companies.
Another key difference, the Railway mania was powered by commoners investing. Not just a few rich bozos and enormous enterprises putting their money into it, as it is with AI
Depends if you're asking people who are informed or news headlines. The informed people have been saying the AI bubble is set to burst around Q2-Q3 2027. That's when loan obligations come due and the majority of investors are set for payouts.
The news will say it's happening everyday, just like Trump is just about to die everyday, or MAGA is "turning against him" everyday according to the articles.
republicans usually crash the economy right toward the end of their term, yeah. pretty much every single time. So Q3 2027 is perfect.
Ai can crash before then, if people stop investing money or loaning money. It doesn't mean OpenAI run out of money straight away, but it means the projects they are involved in don't happen, so the mountain of debt piles up and the sources of revenue dry up. So, it all happens faster and the smaller neo-clouds go belly up first.
Already an Aussie one just pulled its launch IPO due to lack of interest and were considering dropping their price significantly.
If the IPO prices of other companies drop significantly, it means the early investors make very little profit, for a lot of risk, so they start to look elsewhere too.
AI companies need huge amounts of investment over extended periods, so either scenario is problematic for them.
Open AI is already backing out of their IPO too.
Most I've seen is because they don't want to release their real financials. So it must be bad enough to spook investors even more than the delay.
My guess would be 2029, because history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes and I want to see Musk jumping down from one of his rockets, but it probably won't last that long, yes.
Right. It's literally everyday it's brought up. Yet here we are, still using it, still funding the losses. Still funding the climate damage.
AHEM
Rome hasn't collapsed in a day.
Leftists promising AI collapse is like Musk promising full FSD.