this post was submitted on 11 Oct 2026
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Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, says Lancet assessment (www.healthdata.org)
submitted 1 hour ago by beep@piefed.world to c/technology@lemmy.world
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cross-posted from: https://piefed.world/c/tech/p/1458805/nuclear-war-and-malicious-use-of-ai-threaten-end-of-humanity-by-2100-says-lancet-assessm

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[–] tal@lemmy.today 1 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

It doesn't look like the article as a whole is downloadable without an account, but from what is accessible:

The Commission identifies two threats as having extinction-potential:

  • The malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI)
  • Nuclear conflict

I think that it's reasonably likely that by 2100, we will have at least two other potential candidates (if we aren't there already):

  • Engineered, self-replicating biological organisms that create pandemics or other situations problematic to human life (e.g. if we produced something like the Great Oxidation Event on a short timeframe). We are increasingly able to craft and modify life, and I would expect that we will explore all sorts of possibilities.
  • Self-replicating nanomachines that do similar; something like the gray goo scenario.

In all cases other than nuclear conflict, I think that rapid replication that spirals out of control is the common factor that could render a risk existential.

I also do not think that the most-likely existential risk from AI comes from intentional, malicious use—the article is specifically identifying malicious use—but from an error coupled with a system that can expand massively and spin out of control. Something more like the paperclip maximizer scenario.