this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2026
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I'll admit I'm experiencing a degree of pleasure in thinking about how nervous Anthropic and OpenAI must be with their IPOs supposedly coming up.
What's stopping people from using open sourced trained models? Like, why are tokens going to be needed in the future? Isn't this their whole business model?
They don't need to, OpenAI and Anthropic are running at a huge loss to keep it cheaper to use them than to buy the comparable hardware required to replace them. The only way running open source models is cheaper is if you ignore hardware costs, or if you have a very specific and unusual usage pattern (i.e. constant 100% capacity, and not a clock cycle more or less), or if you go with another cloud provider who are also running at a loss.