this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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*with 50 percent reliability.
Heck of an asterisk on this claim.
That sounds like a coin flip, but 50% reliability can be really useful.
If a model has 50% chance of completing a task that would cost me an hour - and I can easily check it was completed correctly - on average, I'm saving half of the time it would take to complete this.
That said, exponentials don't exist in the real world, we're just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.
All that power used for a fucking coin flip.