this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2025
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They’ve raised $32 billion total. Does it still sound sane?
5B run rate explains the wild 183B valuation better. The calculus is usually a solid return after 3 years and double or better by 5, so they're being on something like a 500B valuation by 2030.
And they very likely won't be profitable in the real sense even then.
The $5B run rate, as I understand it, is smoke and mirrors. Each dollar they make costs them much more than that dollar. Sell it at a loss, but make it up on volume!
Something something efficiency
The models are only getting more expensive to train and run as they increase in complexity.
What we lose on sales we make up for in volume