Technology

It's true.

No one can time the market. If I opt to move into a money market at the end of the year, I'm likely giving up some short-term gain, but the flip side is that if this bubble does burst then I can buy back those shares at a massive discount, and profit over the long-term on the market recovering.

It's all a risk. Everyone has to evaluate the info we have and make the best choice according to their risk tolerance.

What really gives me the heebie jeebies are two things:

-The tremendous greed and valuation of so many of these companies, many of which haven't delivered anything except bold promises. LLM's can do simple things well, but its output can't be trusted without human validation, and that's after training on all of the accumulated knowledge of humankind, which is why I tend to think that this bubble is eventually going to pop in dramatic fashion. I also don't think we the public have yet seen the extent of the negative effects of using LLM's, such as the emerging observations of their effect on people's cognitive abilities and how they're able to manipulate.

-The absolutely massive gains in the market over the past two years. My own retirement has had legitimate gains over the past two years that are above and beyond what ponzi schemes promise to deliver, and that's simply unsustainable over the long term, so the question for me becomes when to take the profit and hold for a major event.

Anyway, that's my reasoning around the choices I plan to make. I am not a financial adviser, so don't take any of this as suggestions for what to do with your investments. This is just what makes sense to me.