this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2025
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Yep. The market can stay irrational etc
The thing is though as long as it goes down that's usually all you need. You don't need a total collapse.
That's the thing though, options are generally relatively short in duration, with most being a few months. The longest options are around 1-2 years out.
Could AI stay keep its hype for 1-2 years? Probably. Will it? Who knows!
I assume he has enough funds to buffer and roll it forward if it takes longer than he thinks.
The question is, will he still see a profit if it takes 5-10 years? Will his investors stick with him even if he loses billions? They almost left in 2008, what if this takes longer than that?
If you're taking the contrarian stance in investing, you have to be right both about direction and timing, and timing the market is very hard if not impossible.
Yep, you can only do so much risk management and hedging, and only for so long. There comes a time when you have to cut it off but, you know, hubris