In my small town fuel costs haven’t directly affected me too much. I walk to work anyway and we tend to go through one tank of fuel every three weeks. I feel for people who are dependent on commuting long distances via car though, especially through traffic.

I don’t see any return to the old prices being likely as globally we’ve been seeing systematic destruction of petrol production infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia, squeezing supply, and the wars that caused the destruction are only continuing. I think this represents a substantial economic motivation to support a few long term changes in NZ:

As we are already seeing, people will purchase less petrol and seek alternatives such as public transport;
Governments will adopt policies to support electrification of transport, logistics, agriculture, and industry (solar is already getting bipartisan support)
Private businesses will make their own investments into electric infrastructure as it becomes more cost-effective for them to do so compared to running eg. diesel trucks or generators or boilers, or a fleet of petrol cars.
single-use plastics made from petroleum products will become rare, and whichever materials scientists and chemical engineers can produce good replacements will have a product that will make millions.

As a fellow survivor of the Covid shenanigans I can also see this becoming a political shitshow of the highest order, with those opposed to change doing their best to claim that everything is fine and that everything should continue as it was.

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[–] Dave@lemmy.nz 3 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

As we are already seeing, people will purchase less petrol and seek alternatives such as public transport;

This can only be a good thing. I would love to see public transport further subsidised (or free!) to help support this, though I know this disproportionately benefits those that live in large urban areas. I feel like we could fund this out of roads not built due to not needing them if public transport was better utilised.

Governments will adopt policies to support electrification of transport, logistics, agriculture, and industry (solar is already getting bipartisan support)

The previous government already did a lot in this space. I'd love to see a true investment in energy security in the form of large scale government investment in renewables (maybe use that $1B Luxon wants for gas storage) and perhaps a return of subsidies for electric vehicles.

Private businesses will make their own investments into electric infrastructure as it becomes more cost-effective for them to do so compared to running eg. diesel trucks or generators or boilers, or a fleet of petrol cars.

Trucks are an interesting case. Electric or hybrid trucks do exist, but the cost/benefit and hassle may not add up yet. I'd like to see the government provide better transport infrastructure. Instead of trucking everything up and down the country, can we get some incentives to use trains with trucks only for the last mile part of the trip?

The government is also already helping very large companies with moving to electric boilers, smelters, furnaces, etc. This is with a focus on CO2 emissions rather than reducing fuel usage, but they basically amount to the same thing. Most of the projects I know about were started under the previous government, I'm not sure if the current one has started any new ones.

single-use plastics made from petroleum products will become rare, and whichever materials scientists and chemical engineers can produce good replacements will have a product that will make millions.

I am not convinced plastics will be expensive enough in our lifetimes to make them anything but the cheapest option. And if like you say someone creates the perfect new material and makes millions, well then they will have a patent and everyone that doesn't want to pay through the teeth will stick to plastics.

[–] ooo_shiny@lemmy.nz 2 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

I agree with your comments and I’d like to see train use given more equal priority compared to road use. There’s no particular reason we should be so car dependent except for our particular collective ideology.

Regarding plastics, I think it will begin to bite. There are a few articles out there, such as: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/04/japan-naphtha-shortage-plastic-bag

[–] Dave@lemmy.nz 1 points 3 hours ago

Honestly if Japan's culture is wrapping everything in multiple layers of plastic bags, and Taiwan uses 400 plastic bags a year for every person then maybe it's a good thing. Like you've said elsewhere, the price pressure of oil will likely lead to new ways of doing things.

[–] EatMyPixelDust@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

The problem is that literally everything we make and consume in these modern industrial times, is dependent on petrochemical at some point, somewhere.

People talk about EVs being an alternative to petrol or diesel, but forget the petrochemicals used in mining lithium, making plastic, making electronics, lubricants, paint, etc etc for an EV. Just because it doesn't burn petrol doesn't mean practically every component it's made from requires oil at some stage, as do the components required to make solar panels or wind turbines. If the availability of fossil fuels turns into a shit-show, so will everything else.

[–] ooo_shiny@lemmy.nz 2 points 4 hours ago

Yes, fully agree — and that was sort of my drift with the comment about materials science and chemical engineering. Right now our technology is oil-dependent but it might not have to be.

[–] Venator@lemmy.nz 2 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago) (1 children)

The main cost is the fuel though. We imported $12.1 billion Petroleum and petroleum products, and $6.1 billion in vehicles. Also a vehicle can be a one off cost, and in many cases is an optional purchase, whereas you need diesel to run farm equipment to grow food... Not many farm vehicles available in EV form though... 🫠

[–] ooo_shiny@lemmy.nz 3 points 4 hours ago

About the farm vehicles — I’m hoping that some of the many Chinese EV manufacturers will spot an opening and that our farmers might give what we they come up with a go. I think they would if diesel became sufficiently expensive. That’s how the free market works, right?