This reminds me of something that came up recently. Copilot started hallicinating quite a bit more than usual in Copilot reviews. That made me think about the cost of operarion. As they burn money like this, I won't be surprised if they start decreasing inference quality to decrease cost per user. Which also means people relying on certain model behaviour for tasks could get nasty surprises. Especially within automation workflows where model outputs aren't being reviewed.
this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2025
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AI is funded solely by sunk cost fallacy at this point. I wonder how long it will be before investments start getting pulled back because of a lack of ROI. I can already feel the sentiment towards AI and it getting pushed in everything turning negative amongst consumers recently.
AI is funded solely by sunk cost fallacy at this point.
and the us economy an gdp relies solely on ai make of that what you will.
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is this $11,500,000,000 in real money or speculative money?
Microsoft also lowered stake in OpenAI from 32.5% to 27%
https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/
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apparently the bubble might not be as extreme as some people think because the major AI players are all being propped up by companies that actually produce revenues and profits
Like Nividia which... Oh all based on AI revenue.
And even though NVIDIA is better place as they do produce something, but the something in play has little value out of the AI bubble.
NVIDIA could be left holding the bag on a super increased capacity to produce something that nobody wants anymore (or at least nowhere near at the levels we have now) so they are still very much exposed.
I want cheap GPUs at home please!
me too, but the GPU used for AI are not the same as what we would use at home.
maybe the factories can produce both kinds and they would be cheaper, but it is speculation at this point
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but the something in play has little value out of the AI bubble.
You're delusional if you think GPUs are of little value. LLMs and fancy image generation are a bubble.
The gargantuan computational cost of running the machine learning processing that is now required for protein folding and molecular docking is not.
Sure, but the scientists doing those kinds of workflows don’t have anywhere near the money to burn on GPUs. Even before they had all of their funding cut off for being to gay or brown or whatever crap the Nazis have come up with.
This is just a small part of the perpetual cycle of growth and contraction. Growth comes from breakthroughs and innovations. Contraction comes from mis-allocation of resources and the need to extract efficiency from the breakthrough and innovation.
So now everything is booming and growing. This will slow down and if it becomes efficient enough it will remain useful and accessible. If not, it will be discarded and another breakthrough will take its place.
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The gargantuan computational cost of running the machine learning processing that is now required for protein folding and molecular docking is not.
Sure but do you need the absolute gargantuan capacity that is being built right now for that? if so, for how long and at what cost?
The point is not that GPU per se are of little value... the point is that what would you do with 10,000 rocket ships if you only have 1000 projects that may be able to use them? and what can those projects actually pay? can they cover the cost of the 10,000 rockets you built?
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You know if you invest all your winnings into all the companies that buy your stuff so that they can buy more of your stuff, you are actually not generating any winnings.
The problem is that the companies that actually produce revenues and profits are also in turn being propped up by AI.
Hard to say, really. Yes, MS can absorb loss if the value of their stake in OpenAI goes to $0 overnight, but how much of their stock value is based on expectations that they can sell cloud compute for billions of dollars? And how many private and institutional investors have a stake in that?
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When I lose $11 Billion dollars, I have to go to bed without supper.
If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem; if you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.
The difference between 100 million and 11.5 billion is about 11 billion. If you own a bank 11 billion that's not only that bank's problem, it's the economy's problem.
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So they "lost" $11.5B? Cool, I lost 20 bucks last week and still had to explain it to my accountant 🤭 Feels like the entire AI industry is built on "don't worry, growth will save us", but at some point someone has to pay the electricity bill...
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Oh no!
Anyway...
I look forward to the AI bubble bursting, and billionaires looking shocked, 'because there were no signs'
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