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I believe him. They'll take a single border town with a lot of Russian speakers, then stop, just to gauge article 5. If EU remains unified and responds, they'll pull back. If not, they'll grow the harassment.
Well, it worked with Crimea...
To an extent.
Unfortunately that border town is likely to be in my country. Narva is chock full of Russian speakers.
What countries are being considered?
Everybody will probably think of Latvia, my bet is on Azerbaijan/Armenia...
Unfounded opinion*