You'll know because when it dies it's going to cause a huge market crash and take a shit ton of other companies with it...
this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2026
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I just want to add that the crash will take down the entire economy, not just AI and tech companies.
Simply by subtracting AI companies from the equation, the US is already in a pretty substantial recession. The process of them crashing out will make that even worse.
Thanks for noting this. People get all gleeful without knowing how connected everything is. The other thing I like to remind them is that fatcat bankers aren’t the only ones invested in the stock market. Regular people with 401ks or college savings set aside for their kid are exposed as well.
And possibly the most parts of shadow banking, i.e the alt accounts of major financial institutions.
Fun times ahead!
Not really...
The reason it will domino is AI companies can't afford the hardware, so Nvidia "invests" in AI companies and trades hardware for shares.
They have like 100 billion just in OpenAI, which they're leveraging into loans to make more of the chips no one can afford.
If openai goes down, the banks call in the loans Nvidia has openai for collateral. So then Nvidia will have to sell all their other shares of other AI companies to cover the loans, and likely will have to drastically cut production of AI chips, driving the cost up.
Now all those other AI companies that Nvidia just sold, can't afford the higher price, because they couldn't afford a subsidized price along with shares.
As those companies fold, it makes even less people who would even want to buy those AI chips at any prices, driving Nvidia further down and maybe all the way to bankrupt
That's when it starts fucking with index funds and the wider market
But all those shadow banks won't really get hit. They're not holding stocks to make money, they're buried treasure chests filled with liquid assets in case of emergency. The only way they'd be hit is if the currency they're held in collapses. Even then, that method almost always includes safety deposit boxes with precious metals/jewels to account for that
If the price of gold is anything to go by lately (being up 83% in a year) I think the shadow banks are already moving their money into gold to avoid the collapse.
The problem is that it isn't clear what kinds of exposure private credit and other actors in the shadow banking space hold, because they generally operate on a model of financial obfuscation to get around banking regulation (i.e. being actual banks). What is known is that they are deeply intertwined with financing the AI bubble, even if all their exposure is through debt instruments, crypto schemes or insurance contracts (that probably is not the full scope though), they will be hit hard when their "borrowers" can't pay back.
That’s a very interesting deep dive. Didn’t mind this wall of text at all.
Is AMD also involved in the same shenanigans? Sounds like the AI bubble pop could also mess up the GPU market.
They are but not to the same degree as Nvidia.
Maybe AMD is betting on NVIDIA suffering more from the oncoming crash. If that happens, AMD could increase their market share.
Their presentation at CES was as focused on enterprise AI as Nvidias was.
Well, that’s the public-facing side of the story. Lending GPUs to AI startups seems like a pretty risky strategy. If NVIDIA is lending out a lot of hardware, while AMD isn’t, that puts these companies in very different positions.
It's the "Magnificent 7": Alphabet, MS, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Meta
Cancer of the modern world…
AMD is largely left behind. They are trying real hard to pitch their MI products as an nvidia alternative, but no one is biting. Strangely some of their line is even more exotic to try to host than the highest end Nvidia gear.
So they are relatively less exposed to a crash than nVidia. On top of not doing that lending to their customers...
You seem to forget about the US government, and fed, that will bail them out.
Good. Dreaming of it. They should all collapse. Since none of these people go to jail that's the minimum that can be done to balance the scales .
Oh jeez, sounds like its to big to fail! /$
and i predict we will have another Great Recession/great depression/financial crisis.
Nope
I got a PC with everything except the gpu for 250 euro. It has 32gbs of ram, albeit ddr4, very good deal after all. Thanks marktplaats
Now, where did you got the motherboard with 32 slots for ddr1 ram?
Ah I see you forget your reading glasses. I'll type in caps for you
DDR TYPE FOUR
Well, where did you find a motherboard with 32 slots for DDR4?
Sorry I'm a stupid Murican, what does 584,- mean?
It means that your number is even 20% higher in freedom units
Thank you!
God bless America!
€584.00, I think.
How many hamburgers can you buy with that?
If you buy it with a side order of 2x16GB RAM, then none.
171
❤️🇳🇱
I’m from Belgium and don’t speak Dutch but I love megekko ❤️
Dutch is just so.. Cute 😁
Love to 🇧🇪!
Keep an eye on the trump family investments, when they dump a load of shares the bubble will burst tomorrow
That’s the thing about this bubble. Most of the companies involved aren’t public. The only public company is nvidia, but they’re just selling shovels to the gold prospectors. (Though, they’re giving money to the prospectors to buy the shovels, which is criminal at best.) Oracle is public too but they’re on the periphery.
Alphabet is public, and they have significant exposure
Microsoft owns a huge stake in OpenAI, and has invested heavily in AI
I'd argue all the tech companies are highly exposed
I'm calling the bubble burst for a few weeks after the first large AI company has to go public due to being unable to finance their money burning scheme.
The OpenAI S1 is gonna make WeWork look like a blue chip stock.
What a great little site. It reminds me of istheshipstillstuck.com. I'm bookmarking that shit. Thanks, OP!
ishenrykissingerdead.com
I still visit it now and then. Feels good man.
And unlike Wolverine, please stay dead when you get there.
I remember that, looks like the site is no longer available.
Yeah, looks like it doesn't exist anymore.
It did fulfill its purpose though, it was actualized when Wolverine came back.
Well I guess if we find out that RDIMM modules get incredibly cheap, then OpenAI is dead, but if it’s alternatively SOCAMM modules, unfortunately they aren’t.
It'll never die. It'll take it's ram and what not and become a hedge fund (a lá GameStop) it's only purpose will be to upset me personally.
This doesn't actually make sense, but it has the feel of truth.
Price of NAS HDD I am monitoring, went up 1% in past week in ongoing trend (over 20% over the past ~4 months).
I'd say BIG AI is still steaming.
No idea about OpenAI, specifically.