this post was submitted on 04 Mar 2026
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Democrat Alex Holladay is projected to win the special election to represent Arkansas’s House District 70, edging out Republican Bo Renshaw, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Arkansas is clearly one of the nation’s more reliably red states, but Holladay was running in a politically quirky area: According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried this district by 4 points in 2020, but Kamala Harris won the same district by 2 points in the 2024 cycle.

Arkansas is a difficult state for Democrats to win for many reasons. However, just like with any other red state there are purple and blue pockets. One of those purple districts was Arkansas HD-70, which MVP Harris won by a +2 margin in 2024. The GOP incumbent won this seat 51%-49% at the same time.

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[–] spaghettiwestern@sh.itjust.works 20 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Alex Holladay is projected to win this district 57%-43%, a 13-point upset.

Holy shit - that’s a HUGE margin

[–] SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 18 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Arkansas is a difficult state for Democrats to win for many reasons.

It's partially that but there are other factors too. The national Democratic party pretty much abandoned Arkansas after they got destroyed in elections during the early 2010's. There hasn't been a truly serious candidate for national office and maybe one serious candidate for governor since then. Lot of offices have had Republicans running uncontested. There were a handful of positions on the ballot yesterday with no Democratic contestant. Every position had at least one Republican candidate.

Hell, Tom Cotton ran for re-election uncontested in 2020. Tom Fucking Cotton. A collosal dick that basically no one likes. Oddly enough, think he might actually have some serious competition this time and I think his campaign is actually nervous. I don't have any data to back that up. I'm just going off the sheer volume of spam texts I've been getting along the lines of, "Hallie Shoffner wants you to believe she's a farmer. Now I know she can fix a John Deere tractor with a paperclip and seems to know an awful lot about livestock and row crops and her dad's dad's dad was a farmer in the town named after her family but don't you let that fool you. Hallie Shoffner is no farmer. Hallie Shoffner is a supporter of the TrAnS AgEnDA."

Like, that's all they've got. Bullshit and bigotry. And it looks fucking weak. It's going to be an uphill battle but if Hallie is wise enough to actually drive around the state and go talk to people, she might actually have a chance at unseating Tom Cotton.

If the Democrats want to retake states like Arkansas, they're going to have to accept that no amount of sardonic tweets or carefully planned social media campaigns are going to replace going outside and talking to people.

[–] stoly@lemmy.world 9 points 2 weeks ago

This is genuinely huge news for a place like Arkansas. It shows that, at least for the moment, people in general are tired of the bullshit.