Stagnation around 5% tops.
this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2026
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I feel like that already happened. There was a big malware attack on Arch recently.
That's up to Microsoft.
I expect an uptick every time a major Windows update does something users don't want. After the uptick some might go back to Windows or switch to Mac. But otherwise it will be a very slow and steady growth for GNU+Linux. I don't think GNU+Linux will pass 10% desktop OS market share before 2035, it might even take longer.
Will I wake up one day to see everyone using Linux.
No, and anyone saying yes has no idea what they're talking about. If "the year of linux" is ever actually going to be a thing, it will be a very, very slow and long "year".
Everyone's already using Linux. Linux desktop? Guess we will see if desktop even survives the next few years. I know, unpopular opinion on Lemmy, but I'm pretty sure LLMs will redefine how we interact with our computers, apps, and work. Probably it'll be more like just talking to a wearable and it'll use whatever screens are nearby if it needs to show you something. You won't switch apps, you won't use the web, it'll all just happen as fast as you can dream and say it
I think smart home already proved that talking to our appliances doesn't work. Imo LLMs will re-define how some people think, maybe lots of tasks will be delegated, but there will still be surfing, gaming, development, etc... at least in the next 10 years I don't think desktop will change significantly.
Came here to say the first part. Not so sure about the Star Trek AI anytime soon though.