From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Linux is a family of open source Unix-like operating systems based on the Linux kernel, an operating system kernel first released on September 17, 1991 by Linus Torvalds. Linux is typically packaged in a Linux distribution (or distro for short).
Distributions include the Linux kernel and supporting system software and libraries, many of which are provided by the GNU Project. Many Linux distributions use the word "Linux" in their name, but the Free Software Foundation uses the name GNU/Linux to emphasize the importance of GNU software, causing some controversy.
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It's been gaining a pretty linear 0.5% market share per year for a while. Which is up a lot from the historic pattern of always being about 1%. Unfortunately I think the bigger trend is people giving up on personal computers and using a phone or tablet.
I think it'll be interesting to see what happens when the AI bubble pops. A lot of people want to hold off on switching OS until they get a new computer, but the absurd prices of RAM and GPUs are stopping people from doing that.
IMO, the only way the switch will actually happen is not the RAM or GPU, but if more manufacturers will start selling new/refurbished devices with Linux on it. Reason being: most people treat computers exactly the same way as I treat my car. I won't bother replacing firmware, engine, transmission, or even tires on my car if there is no good reason for it. Same goes for people: they won't be replacing OS, CPU, RAM, disk, etc, except there will be a really good reason for it.
Though, one thing to be mentioned: I generally see the trend that Linux is becoming more popular as more and more popular people adopt it (and are vocal that they have better time with it than with the alternative): PewDiePie, Linus Sebastian, etc. I think the trend might potentially accelerate, as more and more people are really unhappy with how well Windows works these days, and not everyone is ready to buy Mac (though the most recent Neo release success is a great indicator of how bad situation on the market is overall)
Honestly, I hope that doesn't happen. I think if everyone started using Linux it would end up being diluted with commercial entities. You'd have Linux companies like Canonical scooping up more and more market share until they are essentially just the Linux Microsoft corporation. At that point, any decision they make becomes the defacto law of the land despite smaller independent distros/groups trying to do things differently. Other choices would exist, but basically it would be like how most linux users have to live with systemd changes because it's a nightmare to replace that without distro hopping.
You'd still see off-shoots for the desktop space, but if you want to use <INSERT_X> then you have go through this company.
Literally what's the downside? I always been in favor of even Microsoft getting into Linux. I want Microsoft to make a Linux desktop just like they have made a dos desktop. I want Microsoft to work on inter-compatibility like they already have done a bit with WSL. Add ext support to Windows, add proper NTFS support to Linux. Make something like Wine that is actually good.
This won't kill community distros unless the corporations are doing a very good job.
Depends on your country of origin. Some governments are actively moving to Linux (China) some (US) never will.
Mostly stagnation
I agree with this. There's no predicting when it will stop. I think it will grow significantly from where its at, but then using Linux will be like using Firefox vs. Chrome. No longer weird/niche, but never the standard or the thing most companies develop for first.
Well Firefox used to be very popular at some point.
Stagnation around 5% tops.
Linux is the most deployed OS on the planet, and the comparisons are not even close.
If you mean just for Desktop, it depends on what's happening with the MacBook Neo, and if Microsoft gets their shit together and reverses course I suppose.
I think the proposition of avoiding American tech in general will become more and more attractive in the coming years. Governments are already trying to move away from Microsoft for national security reasons. That'll have the knock-on effect of putting Linux and Libra Office in front of more people at work and school.
In combination with the advances in Linux gaming, This may be the first time since the 80s where the OS you're first exposed to will be anything other than Windows or Mac.
It's also possible we'll see something like a EU law forcing PC manufacturers to offer a choice for the pre-installed OS on devices they sell.
This may be the first time since the 80s where the OS you're first exposed to will be anything other than Windows or Mac.
We're already well past that point, honestly. Kids graduating high school this year grew up on iPadOS and ChromeOS. Last year I taught someone who is going to college this fall how a directory structure works.
As for me, our household is a Windows-free environment (except for a VM on my personal laptop that I use for DRM'd ebooks). We're Mac-free except for my work computer. My kids are learning Linux as their first real desktop OS (previously they had only used school Chromebooks), and it's been pretty smooth sailing.
Even pre-covid I was running into kids at the college I worked at at the time who didn’t know how to use a mouse or a flash drive.
I think Microsoft will Do something anticompetitive which will stop the Linux growth.
It sure is a good thing that we don't have "age verification" laws that require devices to self-report the users age, because when those checks get inevitably bypassed the solution would be upgrading to vendor-attested tokens that are tied to Google/Apple/Microsoft accounts.
Oh, wait...
I predict it will be reminiscent to the migration to the threadiverse. Every now and then, we have seen Reddit make some stupid decision, and then we subsequently see a wave of new users migrate to Lemmy. Eventually, one day, I expect Reddit will make such a monumentally stupid decision that nearly everybody bails at once.
That is like what I expect Linux growth to look like. A few waves now and then with each major release of Windows, with each major Microsoft data leak, with each pricing restructuring, etc. Then eventually, Microsoft makes a single fatal decision that causes nearly all remaining Windows users to finally give up hope and migrate.
Reddit is now popping up banners that take up literally half the page if you're browsing a thread. Half of the value of Reddit is that you can find answers to a lot of questions on there via Googling, and they're now killing that
Search engines need to stop promoting Reddit links on the front page. But they won't, so I guess I'll try to use Brave Search more often, maybe they will listen if it becomes a big problem.
You can also take a look at twitter where only a negligible amount of people migrated to free alternatives, most of the people who wanted to migrate did so to another mainstream platform owned by a for-profit company, and most people didn't actually care to migrate no matter what the platform owners did.
I believe a lot of them went to reddit, and that explains how it has been growing since the latest changes
Then eventually, Microsoft makes a single fatal decision
When they suddenly decide that OneDrive is mandatory and not available for free.
The fediverse isn't growing though. Reddit is.
If you look at fediverse monitoring stats, every new wave brings the total users to a very high peak, but then the users start decreasing steadily, like a capacitor discharging, until the next wave. It seems we depend on more waves to keep up with a reasonable number of people. It's probably a similar pattern with linux. With the end of win10, if got to like 5%, but has been going down since then
I suspect retention would actually be better for Linux. I used to be addicted to reddit before switching to Lemmy. Now I'm less addicted and don't check it as much as I used to check reddit. With a computer, making the switch means you've made the switch. Some people will dual-boot and go back to windows for some essential software but once you make the transition, you're still going to use your computer.
There's no such thing as a permanent transition when it comes to software, and the data (statcounter, wikimedia stats and even steam stats) shows a decline recently, whether we want it or not. A lot of people might have ended giving up and installing windows 11. I'd love to see linux stats go up and swallow windows. like almost everyone around here, but we got to be realistic. Our personal experiences are very biased, so that's why we need to rely on data, which tends to be less biased.
Slow and steady, with occasional spikes when a government or mega-corp does something particularly terrible.
Assuming you mean desktop Linux, probably slowly. While Linux on desktop is growing, Desktops PC use in general is trending downwards and Linux on mobile is far behind the other players.
My gut says that long before Linux overtakes Windows/Macintosh most people who want a mouse/keyboard/monitor experience will just plug their phone into a simple dock, like we're seeing with Android's "Desktop mode".
Assuming you mean desktop Linux, probably slowly. While Linux on desktop is growing, Desktops PC use in general is trending downwards and Linux on mobile is far behind the other players.
That trend probably already stabilized
Big jump. To call it slow and steady now is nearly a lie.
A government will send out an RFP to Lenovo, HP, Dell to provide end-user workstations running their government standard distribution. It will be a 10-15 year commitment. This establishes hardware support.
They also establish a support agreement with an office suite.
This combo effectively sets up hardware and software support that becomes available to home users.
It’s almost the same idea as setting minimum wage or travel reimbursements for government workers and private sector follows.
i think that linux usage will stagnate around 10% of people using it, with 90% instead choosing not to operate any computer at all ...
That's up to Microsoft.
People will use “shitty corporate Linux” because no corporation is going to pre-install an OS that isn’t shitty spyware because spying on you is worth money and why on earth would a corporation leave money on the table?
Will I wake up one day to see everyone using Linux.
No, and anyone saying yes has no idea what they're talking about. If "the year of linux" is ever actually going to be a thing, it will be a very, very slow and long "year".
Everyone's already using Linux. Linux desktop? Guess we will see if desktop even survives the next few years. I know, unpopular opinion on Lemmy, but I'm pretty sure LLMs will redefine how we interact with our computers, apps, and work. Probably it'll be more like just talking to a wearable and it'll use whatever screens are nearby if it needs to show you something. You won't switch apps, you won't use the web, it'll all just happen as fast as you can dream and say it