perestroika

A sincere question: are you new to issues related to Iran? Do you not know beforehand what the regime convicts people of, and what the legal system currently looks like?

A bit of background:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_system_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran

Hadd crimes are considered to be "claims against God", and they are punishable by a mandatory, fixed sentence that was laid down in the Koran and Hadith. They are very rarely applied in practice, because they require a high standard of proof and if the person is repentant or if there is any reasonable doubt, it may not be carried out. Two witnesses or a confession are required for a conviction. For sexual crimes, 4 witnesses are required.[citation needed]. Others forms of evidence (such as video evidence) are admitted for hadd punishment, except in cases of consensual sexual crimes. They are:

Waging war against God (moharebeh) and spreading corruption in Earth (mofsede-fel-arz): judge has option of 1) death penalty; 2) crucifixion for three days; 3) amputation of right hand and left foot; 4) exile/imprisonment

This crime is for somebody who used a weapon to strike fear and spread disorder, for example through armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism/violent armed crimes, rape, and gang violence. This charge has been used in Iran as a political charge/treason/disrupting stability of Islamic Republic, and belonging to anti-regime opposition groups.

There is nothing new about an opposition supporter risking a death sentence through a "war against God" or "corruption on Earth" accusation.

Last I heard, a rapper called Tataloo (not sure if imprisoned or executed) was sentenced to death for "corruption on Earth". But I grew up in the decade when one could read news about Salman Rushdie fleeing abroad since grand ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini simply asked every Muslim to kill him if possible. For publishing poetry. This led to several people actually trying, and Rushie was stabbed last time in 2022. Also see: Satanic Verses controversy.

I hope this brief introduction of the justice system of Iran helps you assess the realism of various news. My last encounter with their justice system was a few months ago, when I helped raise money to pay blood money for a child bride, who had been sentenced to death for killing her violent husband. The death sentence was avoidable for rich people, but she was poor, so instead of walking free, it was foreseeable that she'd be hanged. So Iranians collected money to save her and succeeded. I'm not an Iranian and I just helped a bit, and my money wasn't needed in the end. But I kind of know what justice in Iran looks like.

That's very good to hear. :)

For those who want the details, I can recommend an open-access scientific article.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224001639

Put shortly: these mosquitos don't naturally carry the bacterium Wolbachia, but if it's introduced in their population, it can bring about a big reduction in dengue virus transmission.

We report here on an average reduction in dengue fever of 62.4% (confidence intervals 50–71%) in 20 releases sites when compared to 76 control sites in high-rise residential areas. Importantly the level of dengue reduction increased with Wolbachia frequency, with 75.8% reduction (61–87%) estimated at 100% Wolbachia frequency. These findings indicate large impacts of wAlbB Wolbachia invasions on dengue fever incidence in an operational setting, with incidence expected to further decrease as wider areas are invaded

...and that will save many people their health, or even their life. :)

Another hypothesis: people who recently immigrated more typically live in settings where an older family member can help with child care. Could it be true?

As for Gaza, it's not suitable comparison material due to high mortality. What is being sought is a solution that works for low-mortality societies where care for the elderly is a considerable job and budget line.

I think that providing people with total economic certainty of being able to raise a child without risk of poverty, early in their life (before their parents start needing care) might hit a nail. Not sure if it's the only nail, though.

and no, it’s not a financial thing

Over here in Estonia, we have observed that it is a financial thing. Research has shown that parental pay (the state pays X% of your previous salary for up to 475 days of being on parental leave - and as a sidenote I think the measure is wrong, because it means the rich and poor get different sums) encouraged people who already had children to have a second or third child.

But the measure had limits. It did not measurably encourage people to have their first child, and the birth rate continues to decline despite the measure.

I don't know the details because I'm not a parent. On personal notes, if suddenly, I discovered myself in a stable relationship and a hypothetical partner asked me if I want a child, I would reply "do I look like a big wheel? I can't afford that".

Hypothesis: today's young people know a bit more about finances than previous generations. They know that one should not have a child before one has stopped renting and bought a place to live in. This being impossible early on, decisions are delayed and the suitable time passes. Grandparents who could potentially help with child care start needing care themselves. Also, people increasingly live at distance from their parents, so grandparents' chances of helping with child care are reduced even if they aren't elderly yet.

As for relationships, research indicates that they break more often. Arguably the reason is that people don't want to remain in a badly functioning relationship, and haven't got the skills to keep it from breaking. (I don't even want to get started about dating sites - it's not profitable for dating sites if people find compatible partners. It's their customer disappearing and stopping to pay.)

Skills could be taught in school. Dating sites could be told to redesign themselves, accounting for sociological knowledge. Social security for parents should be effective enough to support a single parent who is renting their place of living, and should last long enough for a child to reach shool age. Such a policy should have constitutional guarantees (not changeable with 1 parliament). If this was done, population decline would slow over here. Not sure about France.

Just to emphasize that the title has a far different iffyness level than the content:

“At the Fund, one muscle that we are building is our ability to hypothetically present scenarios of unthinkable events and then figure out what to do,” Georgieva said at an event hosted by Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank.

But in principle, if Trump wants to walk the US off a cliff, he can, and other players would like to learn their moves beforehand.

I'm quite certain that other countries are systematically helping them out, but they do accept donations from individuals too. There are many alternatives, but to keep things simple, I will propose two ways which I personally have used.

a) Via government: https://u24.gov.ua/ --> "Donate directly"

b) Via anarchists: https://www.solidaritycollectives.org/en/support/

Government, as usual, moves slow and does big systematic things. Anarchists, as usual, when not criticizing the government, can do 10 times more with the same funds, but can't do big and systematic stuff.

But no statistic can capture what it means to live in a city where winter has been deliberately turned into a tool of terror.

There is such a statistic. Life in freezing conditions causes death, illness and loss of productivity.

Old people risk blood clots. After the situation passes, statistics will absolutely show excess mortality. Everyone will risk respiratory infections and pneumonia. Utility workers risk overworking and some in Ukraine have indeed died from obviously doing it.

Heating systems will need renovating because of pipes bursting from cold, and non-critical companies may not have power to operate their business (although most will likely have a generator and battery bank by now, but not enough to generate process heat for industrial stuff). This has economic impact.

It's pretty bad. Fortunately EU countries produce more transformers and power pylons than Russia produces missiles, but the loss of communal heating during a cold wave has severe consequences.

In an irony of fate, the power grid in Russia's northernmost port city of Murmansk also collapsed... under wind and snow. Several power pylons from the 1960-ties couldn't take it any more. They plan to spend the next week in the same style.

Last I read, Ukraine is looking to replace large co-production plants with a considerable number of very small ones. If your community is at risk of war or disaster, but considering a big power station or electrical junction, or an overhead high voltage line... maybe you can still change plans, build it smaller and distributed, or move something underground. Welcome to the bad new reality where Russia wrecks Ukraine while climate f*cks Ukraine, Russia and the US simultaneously.

adding they would need to build up their own nuclear capability, costing billions of euros

Billions of euros is not a big sum for nuclear weapons. If others ask politely, maybe France or the UK will give a few tips about making them cheaper. Sweden may also have some recipes in the bottom drawer of canceled stuff. Ukraine does very likely possess most of the required knowledge to recreate Soviet designs.

It's interesting to note that he's Vance's patron and possibly puppet-master.

Unless the people of the US somehow manage to armour their system against oligarchy, this kind of not-quite-healthy (arguably more than a bit sociopathic) persons will keep pushing their puppets to center stage, where they'll damage the interests of common people quite badly.

Since the article doesn't use the past simple tense, I assume that his visit to France was canceled (or in a less cheerful case, postponed). I would happily cancel his visits elsewhere too.

Make Oligarchs Go Away

i don’t think you are very good at judging the reliability of sources frankly.

The Guardian is a bit better than you or me at this task.

Hundreds of gunshot eye injuries found in one Iranian hospital amid brutal crackdown on protests

I remind of a news article back then, telling of an eye doctor in one hospital counting 400 gunshot eye injuries.

Back when it was happening, I extrapolated that to 2000 gunshot eye injuries per city, and wondered how many cities to multiply the result by. In the end, I gave up with logic and guessed 36 000 gunshot eye injuries per Iran. And that's strictly only gunshot eye injuries. Not neck, chest, stomach, arm or leg injuries.

In situations were the flow of information is impaired - like by an internet blackout, which is still in force - information about the scale of events trickles out.

I remind of the earthquake in Turkey a few years ago. At first, 50 dead were reported. As hours and days passed, communications were restored and victims counted, it became... over 50 000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_earthquakes

This is how infromation arrives.

As for the rest of your post - it is not for me, so I won't adress it.

Given that Sweden has announced developing the same capability, and others likely have forgotten to announce, it's likely true.