perestroika

Well, he's an assistant professor in an institute in the Qatar emirate - which is not a democratic state. If he gets the emir's money, he sings the emir's song.

Some of the sources he offers are posts on Twitter. He should offer better than that.

Some of the opinion he offers contradicts what has been recorded.

But in some things, he also brings information that's factual. For example, conditions in prisons run by the SDF were actually very poor and unhealthy, and the AANES political project failed to integrate its large Arab population as eager participants. They tried, but it didn't work. Then they stopped trying.

Holding positions in Arab-majority areas would have only worked if Arabs had been eager to participate in the SDF, but it was too much of a Kurdish project, and people became corrupt over the years.

Holding positions might have still worked if the river Euphrates had been the border between the two factions, but this would have required an armed-to-the-teeth effort at the river to prevent a crossing. And likely, the fragile economy of the AANES region and its very limited trade connections did not enable such a method.

Which does not mean that everything is over. International pressure should be brought to bear to allow evacuations from, and food and medical supplies to Kobani. Syrian government should be told by foreign governments that they will get renewed sanctions if they fight against civilians.

But are there any medical reports or witness testimonies? Perhaps a sound recording by someone in proximity?

Microwaves cause burns, but bleeding from the nose seems very unlikely. Sonic weapons can cause bleeding, but not sure about eyes. Explosions cause both.

But eventually, what would happen is: a wounded solider ends up in hospital, and journalists interview him - there should be such an interview somewhere.

Edit: couldn't find an original source, but found something:

https://nypost.com/2026/01/10/world-news/us-used-powerful-sonic-weapon-in-venezuela-during-raid-to-capture-madouro-incredible-witness-account/

“At one point, they launched something; I don’t know how to describe it,” the witness said. “It was like a very intense sound wave. Suddenly I felt like my head was exploding from the inside.”

The effects were immediate and horrific.

“We all started bleeding from the nose,” he said. “Some were vomiting blood. We fell to the ground, unable to move. We couldn’t even stand up after that sonic weapon — or whatever it was.”

If the report is authentic, the soldier who witnessed its use did his math right. Sonic weapon of unspecified type. US troops having to launch it suggests it had close-range effect.

About helicopters

Bigger sorts of US helicopters (e.g. Chinook) have ultraviolet detectors and infrared lasers in jammer pods. Those help against small air defense missiles, especially old flavours without an imaging (focal plane) seeker. These jammer pods are impressive if you shoot one missile. They lock onto an ultraviolet flash (presumed launch point) and jam in that direction. Now introduce "know your enemy". Introduce flares, fireworks, ultraviolet flashing LEDs and fire several missiles. The jammer pod is chasing false missiles and the real missile hits. Maduro boasted with the Venezuelan armed forces having 6000 "Igla" missiles. With a bit of knowing their enemy and doing counter-countermeasures, firing 20 of them in a short time would have ruined the operation - lots of helicopters down and soldiers dead.

I also note: jammer pods don't prevent firing, they prevent hitting. In videos of the operation, we'd be seeing launches and misses, but aren't seeing them. But hey, proximity fuzes can be jammed. Let's check if the Igla has one. It has a contact, magnetic and delayed fuze. Of those, if contact fails, the magnetic fuze still works, and delayed fuzes would be causing "fireworks" in the sky. Having watched the videos, I can say that no such fireworks occurred.

Most likely, guys on ground weren't issued their missiles. If some were, they weren't briefed about how to shoot down an US helicopter (start with counter-countermeasures, then shoot for real). Or they were positioned in predictable places and bombed in advance. Or their missiles had been sabotaged. Or they partied hard during new year and were recovering, and the US had knowledge of that.

Venezuela also supposedly had Swedish RBS-70 laser beam riding MANPADS, but maybe those were past their "best before" date. But you can't effectively jam a beam rider - it reads the beam with its back side. Ultimately, if antiaircraft missiles fail, you can shoot down a helicopter with antitank missiles. Ukrainians have used their beam riding antitank missiles to shoot down Russian helicopters. Against a helicopter which has laser warning sensors, again, tactics would matter. You point the missile on the wrong course first. It would miss. You let it approach the target. Then you "pull" the missile onto the target, giving the target minimum time to react.

At close range, you can bring down a helicopter with an inertially guided ("predicted line of sight") antitank missile, or even an RPG. And of course, with a bad old air defense gun, which leaves the telltale sign of tracers in the sky. In the sky above Caracas, strings of tracers weren't flying and air defense projectors weren't beaming any light. These tools don't fall silent at the press of any button. If they are silent, it indicates organizational problems.

Conclusion: Venezuelan air defense was not ready for combat. US intelligence agencies likely knew about its poor readiness and designed the operation to take maximum advantage of it.

About jamming

Yes, jamming was likely used, and used well. It likely disabled stationary air defense. I note that some air defense vehicles were hit in the same positions where they were noted months ago. "Sitting duck" is not a tactic which you use against an overwhelmingly equipped opponent who has satellites. You must have a schedule of satellite overflights, warning of drone overflights, and you must set up your system in a new place several times per day.

About intel

Apparently, Venezuela had no lookouts posted near US air bases. That's not how you do it. During the wars in Yugoslavia, Serbian intelligence services had lookouts near US bases in Italy, and it helped them a lot.

About novel weapons

From what I have heard, I might suspect that maybe special forces used some sonic weapons (or maybe the reports are wrong and they simply used thermobaric weapons) to assist themselves against the bodyguards. Lesson: if you are a bodyguard expecting US special forces, dress like a cosmonaut - a proper helmet with noise mitigation and cancellation is advised.

Regarding Trump and silly words

Someone should inform his supporters of having successfully used Gaynator 2000 on the president, demading proof of the opposite, and see if comedy ensues. :)

It is reasonable of both sides to keep their trade open, in case someone else slams theirs shut.

Denmark

Fortunately for the US, only one small Danish pension fund. Not the whole country. But one can guess that despite the event being small, people aren't currently clawing to have US treasury bonds anywhere.

"A year has passed. And nothing has changed. We are still in a situation where I must say the same words again,” Zelenskyy said.

True and false at the same time. Taken separately, a lot of things have changed. Dozens of prototypes have become experimental products and are being used. E.g. factory A opened, factory B got furnished and is doing test production, factory C is being built, with the understanding that it will give production in 2027. That helps, if you know "I will get a shiny new thingy in 2027", you can donate your old thingy in 2026 (but the old thingy could be obsolete already).

But he's right about attitudes. Attitudes in many offices are complacent. Things are not taken seriously, people are stuck in their routine and helpless.

I would like to deny, but I've had a chance to observe first hand. An office which you'd expect to respond to queries fast, responded slower than moss grows. An office which you'd expect to be constructive and help find a way to legally reserve airspace kept playing table tennis with applications until threatened with civil disobedience. Conditions for a project competition which you'd hope to accommodate agile development turned out to be a bureaucratic jumble in which you can't even sign an application due to severe limitations. I've heard credible stories of drone developers in Eastern Europe driving hundreds of kilometers to Ukraine to test (or testing illegally) because at home, things are overregulated. It's a recipe for falling behind.

On the grand scale, politicians are also relatively passive and not very resourceful. It was sad to watch the situation involving frozen Russian funds. There was a way to help and intervene effectively, but politicians were too risk-averse to use it.

I appreciate the humor, but staying real, that's why the EU and NATO exist. The US went haywire, so they are gradually filling its shoes.

Ukraine will continue, and will likely grow in capability since they are very intensively developing all kinds of tech, with the cooperation of a large number of people.

Kurds in Syria likely cannot, and will be driven to emigration or killed. :( They haven't got a single seaport, road or rail connection to a friendly state, with the exception of Iraqi Kurdistan (which is small, poor like them and not an independent country, but a province of Iraq).

Searching for parallels in US history, a comparable time is difficult to find. Previous cases have been policy changes done for some foreign political gain. Let's pick Osama bin Laden for example: the mujahideen whose successors hosted him later, were fighting against the USSR, which had overthrown the government of Afghanistan. Then the USSR withdrew from Afghanistan, and the mujahideen were no longer needed. Afghanistan got its own government which the Taliban (a group consolidated out of former mujahideen) later overthrew, to later host Osama bin Laden, who later attacked the US.

The story, even if tragic, has logical turning points and the actions of the US can be rationally understood through the concept of national interest.

The current situation however, resembles a headless chicken running its last circles, while a fox watches with a WTF expression, because the chicken elected to have no head (well, actually, it was propagandized to).

When Finland has been boarding ships in the Gulf of Finland (not just oil, the last one was carrying steel), it has eventually let them go.

But the context has been different: Finland has boarded ships when they've dragged their anchors, which places a gas pipeline, electrical and communications cables in immediate danger, and has resulted in those breaking in the past, which is very expensive and threatens people with loss of services.

France boarded the ship because they suspected it was not displaying its true flag.

Last I checked, they ordered it to travel to an anchoring place and wait, while officials and courts move to sort out the matter. What will become of the ship is not yet known. But there is a precendent, if you read the article:

Last October, France seized another sanctioned tanker, the Boracay, off its west coast before releasing it a few days later.

Ideally, if you planned your transmission well, they would conclude "about a thousand suspects live in this circle, but is the suspect a local?". :)

Let's pause for a while and think about who controls the dissection of bodies, and who can tell coroners to sign statements in Iran.

Yeah, the Iranian government which just supressed the protests. And desperately needs a scapegoat.

And this, colleagues, is why my smartphone is a Google-free zone. It has apps for calling, sending SMS, keeping a contact list, it also has a calculator and alarm clock. The camera is taped over.

If you have any leftover nuclear launch codes, I can keep them for you. :P