I think they recently stopped holding back. :(
Content warning: lots of dead people.
perestroika
joined 2 years ago
I see two possibilities:
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if the situation has become such that protesters are having armed exchanges with the regime, and losing them due to lacking control over airspace, lacking good enough communications or lacking armor - then foreign intervention may tilt the balance in their favour [this is currently not the case, to my understanding]
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however, if they mostly aren't involved in armed struggle, but still trying to do mass movement / demonstrations / riots, then foreign attack offers a convenient excuse to declare martial law and use any flavour of weapon to kill them [this could be the case, to my understanding]
This presents a difficult situation: threatening the Iranian regime with foreign intervention to have it not shoot live ammo at the protesters, may help their cause. Unless it's already being shot, which I have a strong suspicion is happening.
However, moving to assist them may end up actually hurting them - and I'm not analyst enough to give conditions or a probability.
I don't think the ayatollah or his generals are sleeping in their ordinary bunkers. They're probably extra careful at this time and have already arranged the downward delegation of authority in case of attack.
At this point on the curve (and I don't know where it's heading), the situation in Iran develops so fast and the communications blackout is so severe that information cannot be verified until it's already boring, and everyone trying to predict the outcome is working with unverified information.
Things that might be true, but are unverified:
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the current protest wave has already grown bigger than the protest about Mahsa Amini's death, and repressions have grown more severe
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reports exist of several hundred dead and several thousand wounded, hospitals reporting of an overwhelming number of injury patients and of mobilizing every resource they can to treat people
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videos of protesters taking down the Islamic Republic's symbols in various places (I've been unable to geolocate them, I bet journalists are currently trying)
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reports of police defecting in rural minority populated areas (e.g. where people are 75% Kurdish)
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reports of police and Basij getting driven out of appreciable regions in large cities, and some of their stations getting torched
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reports of the IRGC (revolutionary guard corps, military with above average loyalty to the regime) being deployed with live ammunition
However, I have seen few videos with good enough context (for a foreigner to understand and analyze) in a daytime setting. All the fighting seems to be occurring at night. What I have not yet seen is an armored vehicle being deployed either against protesters or by them. I have not yet seen machinegun or rocket grenade fire. So I believe that the IRGC is not on the streets yet.
They're pretty much the final tool that the regime can throw. A very deadly tool, however.
If the IRGC refuse, it's over and protesters have won - then the pains of reassembling a new Iran will start.
If they obey, blood will flow in streams and protest may still be crushed (or prevail over them, if protesters have managed to arm themselves or receive the defection of military units, or receive the support of underground militant organizations, among which the notorius Mujahidin al-Khalq would be a likely candidate and Kurdish separatists might take armed action in their home provinces). I personally think that lots of work is being done to convince some units of the standing army to defect.
The article specifically mentions use of antidrone rifles (rifles with "smart sights"). Arrow was the object on interest, "Smash" sights were the component that miserably failed.
The lesson: air defense needs to be multilayer.
If one has an antiballistic missile system, it needs wrapping in several layers of increasingly close-range air defense (and they need to be working). For example:
- layer 0: a guy with a shotgun (or a rifle with smart sights)
- layer 1: an optical tracking system for aiming jammers and microwave effectors
- layer 2: air surveillance radar, automatic close-in weapons system (radar controlled miniguns, above ground to be able to shoot low)
- layer 3: short-range missiles or interceptor drones (above ground to be able to aim low)
- layer 4: medium range missiles or fighter aircraft
If the target is unmovable (Arrow 3 is unmovable), even more could be warranted. Since its missiles are very expensive, cheaper antiballistic systems should be nearby to engage slower threats.
Fortunately this was not an attack, and 100% likely provoked people to make improvements.
Additional notes:
Geoffrey Alpert, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of South Carolina, questioned why the ICE agent would place himself in front of a moving car.
Alpert said the officer’s positioning could be an example of officer-created jeopardy. “The crux of officer-created jeopardy is putting yourself in a position to use force in response to whatever the suspect’s doing, as opposed to just reacting to protect his own life or someone else’s,” said Alpert.
She's leading them since 1985. They fought in the Iran-Iraq war. Gathered from Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mojahedin_Organization_of_Iran
From 1982 to 1988, despite the mounting casualties on both sides, the lingering underground presence of the MEK in Iran remained operational and went on to perform an average of sixty operations per week, resulting in assassinations of important Khomeini deputies.[159] The MEK came to be considered Iran's "largest and most active Iranian exile organization",[165][166][113] and its publications were commonly circulated within the Iranian diaspora.[167]
...
In 1987, it founded the "National Liberation Army of Iran" (NLA), with the sole objective of "toppling the Islamic Republic through military force from outside the country".[57][58][59] During the Iran–Iraq War, the MEK then sided with Iraq, taking part in Operation Forty Stars,[60][61][62][57] and Operation Mersad.[63][64]
...
On 27 March 1988, the NLA launched its first military offensive against the Islamic Republic's armed forces.[61] The NLA captured 600 square-kilometres of Islamic Republic territory and 508 soldiers from the Iranian 77th infantry division in Khuzestan Province.[173] The operation was named "Shining Sun"[60][61][62][57] (or "Operation Bright Sun")[173] in which according to Massoud Rajavi, 2000 soldiers of the Islamic Republic were killed and $100 million worth of equipment was captured and exhibited for journalists.[173]
...
Operation Forty Stars was launched on June 18, 1988. With 530 aircraft sorties and heavy use of nerve gas, they attacked to the Iranian forces in the area around Mehran, killing or wounding 3,500 and nearly destroying a Revolutionary Guard division. The forces captured the city and took positions in the heights near Mehran, coming close to wiping the whole Iranian Pasdaran division and taking most of its equipment.[174] While some sources claim that Iraq participated in the operation,[175] the MEK and Baghdad said Iraqi soldiers did not take part.[176][177]
...the crown prince is a fairly safe guy in comparison to both Maryam or Massoud Rajavi. However, I do not exclude that their organization is currently paving the way for him - in ways which would make Mossad faint. (I do hope they've stopped playing with chemical weapons, it's badly out of fashion.)
...and an EU-China alliance, Trump's nightmare alliance, with China mediating and resolving disputes in northern Eurasia, including the Russia-Ukraine war, likely with mere words.
He should know that if he blows up NATO, it's coming.
US analysts should tell him that this potential alliance would have several times the industrial capacity and scientific potential of the US, and if that doesn't count, it would also have ~ 1000 nuclear warheads.
(The alliance would be stable since potential allies would be far from each other, safely separated by a large nuclear armed gas station which also claims alliance with China, but China supplies drone parts to both sides.)
There is a second person who might qualify, but she lives abroad too, and is considered the leader of a terrorist organization.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryam_Rajavi
What Maryam Rajavi said in September:
Speaking to the crowd In the 6 September 2025 rally of Iranians in Brussels, Rajavi stated, “The answer to the Iranian crisis is the overthrow of the entire religious tyranny! The people of Iran are more prepared than ever! Iranian society is in a volatile state, and the only solution is the Third Option, neither appeasement nor war, but regime change by the people and their organized resistance!”[47]
...so broadly speaking, she's in agreement with the crown prince, but he has better communications currently, and they fear her considerably more, because unlike the shahs's son, she has given orders to blow people up.
I was going to say that. Mexico is to the United States approximately what Ukraine is to Russia - weaker, but capable of sustaining a long conflict.
Whom the rest of the continent would support and equip, I leave for everyone to guess. Europe can be checked for reference.
Sadly, they've just done it again.
The IRBM hit an underground gas storage facility near Lviv and during very cold weather, reduced heating gas pressure to a very low level. Unless engineers and technicians find a way to re-route gas, this can result in widespread infrastructure damage (water pipes freezing).
Russia also drone-swarmed Kyiv and knocked out half of the heating - the mayor, Vitaly Klychko, recommended that people who happen to have an alternative place of living should leave town. This will likely result in the same kind of damage.
Ukraine responded and knocked out electricity in the Belgorod oblast of Russia. It may be guessed that people in Belgorod aren't enjoying the moment either.
War against heating infrastructure in winter is war against civilians.
Fortunately, this type of IRBM is scarce, Russia currently produces 2..3 of them per year (it's a new product, no stockpiles), so it can be used for signaling and high priority strikes, but not constant bombardment.
To me, this somewhat old debate has always sounded a bit insufficiently nuanced.
Face masks which don't follow facial contours are for low-risk stuff. If a dentist is hovering above a healthy patient's mouth, fixing their teeth, and doesn't want large droplets to be communicated either way, it helps.
If however, someone has Ebola and a doctor goes to see them, well... in cases like that, doctors have always preferred to look like a cosmonaut - wear the highest grade of protective equipment they can.
Guidelines try to adress typical situations. If the context is an infectious disease of the respiratory tract, the ordinary masks, leaking from sides and near the nose, don't offer a comfortable level of protection, even if their filtering capability is theoretically good enough. They just leak.
I confirm, having seen geolocated videos. The aftermath in Tehran (if you want to search: "Kahrizak Forensic Medicine center" is one keyword) was 100+ body bags. This must be multiplied by some number of cities.
Since the Iranian government is no longer holding back, there does not appear to be need for anyone else to hold themselves back.
People who can should try to achive the defection of military units.
If this is impossble, delivering weapons and explosives to rebel groups while damaging government communications and coordination - seems the next best option.
But it could be late. Protesters might be unable to take this level of casualties for long.