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There are so many pending court cases against allies of Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Socialist prime minister, that a newspaper story on New Year’s Eve forecast that 2026 would be his “judicial Calvary”. They include half a dozen investigations into allegations of corruption against his closest political allies. In addition, the country’s constitutional court is likely to hear an appeal against the Supreme Court’s conviction and dismissal of Álvaro García Ortiz, the former prosecutor-general, for leaking the tax problems of the romantic partner of the head of the Madrid regional government. And judges have charged Mr Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, and his brother with conflicts of interest (both say they are innocent).

The prime minister and his allies consider this a campaign of judicial harassment aimed at overthrowing the government.

...

The wider problem for Spain’s democracy is that the judiciary has become a political football. Some Spaniards think judges have always been influenced by politics, and it has merely become more explicit.

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Nobody seriously questions ... judicial investigations into corruption. “It’s not true that the judiciary is [biased] against the government,” says Elisa de la Nuez, a campaigner for the rule of law. But the pushback is worrying, she adds. “For the first time judges feel threatened by political power.” In the long term, that is in nobody’s interest. It is up to politicians to take the first step, by ceasing to seek to judicialise politics. But given how polarised Spain has become, that may be too much to ask.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6632765

• Iran has sold nearly $3 billion worth of missiles to Russia to aid President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to a Western security official.
• The purchases have included hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, nearly 500 other short-range ballistic missiles and approximately 200 surface-to-air missiles.
• Russia has spent more than the equivalent of $4 billion on Iranian military equipment since late 2021.

...

Contracts with Moscow starting from October 2021 — before the war began — for ballistic and surface-to-air missiles amount to roughly $2.7 billion, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

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Moscow and Tehran have drawn closer since Putin’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has triggered sweeping sanctions against Moscow and the Kremlin’s most serious confrontation with the West since the Cold War, while Iran’s provision of weapons to Russia has further deepened the two countries’ partnership.

...

Iran has delivered millions of rounds of ammunition and shells, according to the assessment, which doesn’t represent the entirety of what Moscow has purchased from Tehran as more equipment is expected to be supplied.

Tehran has also supplied Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones and shared technology that has enabled Russia to manufacture them domestically under the name “Geran-2” as part of a $1.75 billion contract signed at the beginning of 2023.

...

Iran, whose government is crushing ongoing violent protests, sought to deepen its ties with Russia starting in the 2010s, smarting from the West’s ability to isolate it over the country’s nuclear program.

While Iran signed a strategic partnership with Russia in January 2025, it doesn’t contain a mutual-defense pact and Moscow didn’t offer any tangible assistance to Tehran during Israeli and US strikes on Iran last year. Russia is building a trade route with Tehran connecting to India to try to weaken the impact of sanctions, and officials have discussed boosting financial and banking cooperation.

• Iran has sold nearly $3 billion worth of missiles to Russia to aid President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to a Western security official.
• The purchases have included hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, nearly 500 other short-range ballistic missiles and approximately 200 surface-to-air missiles.
• Russia has spent more than the equivalent of $4 billion on Iranian military equipment since late 2021.

...

Contracts with Moscow starting from October 2021 — before the war began — for ballistic and surface-to-air missiles amount to roughly $2.7 billion, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

...

Moscow and Tehran have drawn closer since Putin’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has triggered sweeping sanctions against Moscow and the Kremlin’s most serious confrontation with the West since the Cold War, while Iran’s provision of weapons to Russia has further deepened the two countries’ partnership.

...

Iran has delivered millions of rounds of ammunition and shells, according to the assessment, which doesn’t represent the entirety of what Moscow has purchased from Tehran as more equipment is expected to be supplied.

Tehran has also supplied Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones and shared technology that has enabled Russia to manufacture them domestically under the name “Geran-2” as part of a $1.75 billion contract signed at the beginning of 2023.

...

Iran, whose government is crushing ongoing violent protests, sought to deepen its ties with Russia starting in the 2010s, smarting from the West’s ability to isolate it over the country’s nuclear program.

While Iran signed a strategic partnership with Russia in January 2025, it doesn’t contain a mutual-defense pact and Moscow didn’t offer any tangible assistance to Tehran during Israeli and US strikes on Iran last year. Russia is building a trade route with Tehran connecting to India to try to weaken the impact of sanctions, and officials have discussed boosting financial and banking cooperation.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6632613

...

Polina Azarnykh, a 40-year-old former teacher, uses a Telegram channel to lure young men, often from poor countries, into joining Russia's military.

The former teacher's smiling video messages and upbeat posts offer "one-year contracts" for "military service".

The BBC World Service has identified nearly 500 cases where she has provided documents, referred to as invitations, which allow the recipient to enter Russia to join the military. These have been for men - mainly from Syria, Egypt and Yemen - who appear to have sent her their passport details in order to enlist.

But recruits and their relatives have told the BBC that she misled men into believing they would avoid combat, failed to make clear they could not leave after a year and threatened those who challenged her. When contacted by the BBC, she rejected the allegations.

Twelve families told us of young men they say were recruited by her who are now dead or missing.

...

Azarnykh's Telegram channel has 21,000 subscribers. Her posts have often told readers wanting to apply to join the Russian military to send her a scan of their passport. She has then posted invitation documents, sometimes with a list of names of the men they are for.

The BBC has identified more than 490 such invitations that she has sent over the past year to men from countries including Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

Her posts have mentioned recruitment for an "elite international battalion" and made it clear that people in Russia illegally - including those whose visas have expired - are eligible.

...

Many felt Azarnykh had misled or exploited recruits. They told us the men knew they were joining the military, but did not expect to serve on the front line. Several, like Omar, felt they had inadequate training or thought they would be able to leave after a year.

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Azarnykh became "one of the most important recruiters" for Russia's army, says Habib, another Syrian who has served in Russia's military. He was willing to be filmed but spoke under a pseudonym for fear of repercussions.

Habib says he and Azarnykh "worked together for around three years on visa invitations to Russia". He gave no further details and we have not been able to confirm his role in the process. An image from social media in 2024 shows him alongside her.

Azarnykh, who is from Russia's south-western Voronezh region, ran a Facebook group helping Arab students come to Moscow to study, before starting her Telegram channel in 2024.

...

Azarnykh's posts from mid-2024 begin to note that recruits will be "participating in hostilities" and mention foreign fighters who have died in combat.

"You all understood well that you were going to war," she says in one video in October 2024. "You thought that you could get a Russian passport, do nothing and live in a five-star hotel?... Nothing happens for free."

In another case, in 2024, the BBC has heard a voice message sent by Azarnykh to a mother whose son was serving in the military. Azarnykh says the woman has "published something horrible about the Russian army". Using expletives, she threatens the son's life and warns the woman: "I'll find you and all your children."

The BBC made multiple attempts to contact Azarnykh. Initially she said she would do an interview with us if we travelled to Russia, but the BBC declined for safety reasons. Later, when asked in a voice call about claims that recruits were promised non-combat roles, she hung up. In voice notes sent afterwards, she said our work was "not professional" and warned of potential defamation proceedings. She also said: "Our respected Arabs can stick their accusations up their arses."

...

...

Polina Azarnykh, a 40-year-old former teacher, uses a Telegram channel to lure young men, often from poor countries, into joining Russia's military.

The former teacher's smiling video messages and upbeat posts offer "one-year contracts" for "military service".

The BBC World Service has identified nearly 500 cases where she has provided documents, referred to as invitations, which allow the recipient to enter Russia to join the military. These have been for men - mainly from Syria, Egypt and Yemen - who appear to have sent her their passport details in order to enlist.

But recruits and their relatives have told the BBC that she misled men into believing they would avoid combat, failed to make clear they could not leave after a year and threatened those who challenged her. When contacted by the BBC, she rejected the allegations.

Twelve families told us of young men they say were recruited by her who are now dead or missing.

...

Azarnykh's Telegram channel has 21,000 subscribers. Her posts have often told readers wanting to apply to join the Russian military to send her a scan of their passport. She has then posted invitation documents, sometimes with a list of names of the men they are for.

The BBC has identified more than 490 such invitations that she has sent over the past year to men from countries including Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, Ivory Coast and Nigeria.

Her posts have mentioned recruitment for an "elite international battalion" and made it clear that people in Russia illegally - including those whose visas have expired - are eligible.

...

Many felt Azarnykh had misled or exploited recruits. They told us the men knew they were joining the military, but did not expect to serve on the front line. Several, like Omar, felt they had inadequate training or thought they would be able to leave after a year.

...

Azarnykh became "one of the most important recruiters" for Russia's army, says Habib, another Syrian who has served in Russia's military. He was willing to be filmed but spoke under a pseudonym for fear of repercussions.

Habib says he and Azarnykh "worked together for around three years on visa invitations to Russia". He gave no further details and we have not been able to confirm his role in the process. An image from social media in 2024 shows him alongside her.

Azarnykh, who is from Russia's south-western Voronezh region, ran a Facebook group helping Arab students come to Moscow to study, before starting her Telegram channel in 2024.

...

Azarnykh's posts from mid-2024 begin to note that recruits will be "participating in hostilities" and mention foreign fighters who have died in combat.

"You all understood well that you were going to war," she says in one video in October 2024. "You thought that you could get a Russian passport, do nothing and live in a five-star hotel?... Nothing happens for free."

In another case, in 2024, the BBC has heard a voice message sent by Azarnykh to a mother whose son was serving in the military. Azarnykh says the woman has "published something horrible about the Russian army". Using expletives, she threatens the son's life and warns the woman: "I'll find you and all your children."

The BBC made multiple attempts to contact Azarnykh. Initially she said she would do an interview with us if we travelled to Russia, but the BBC declined for safety reasons. Later, when asked in a voice call about claims that recruits were promised non-combat roles, she hung up. In voice notes sent afterwards, she said our work was "not professional" and warned of potential defamation proceedings. She also said: "Our respected Arabs can stick their accusations up their arses."

...

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6632133

Chinese officials are using a ‘highly specific’ interpretation of EU rules to suggest Taiwanese figures should not be granted visas, EU officials say.

Archived version

Chinese officials have been pushing “legal advice” on European countries, saying their own border laws require them to ban entry to Taiwanese politicians, according to more than half a dozen diplomats and officials familiar with the matter.

The officials made demarches to European embassies in Beijing, or through local embassies directly to European governments in their capital cities, warning the European countries not to “trample on China’s red lines”, according to the European diplomats and ministries who spoke to the Guardian.

The manner of the approaches varied – some to individual countries and some as groups, some by written note verbale (a semiformal diplomatic communication) and others in person. They occurred in November and December, and were at least partly in response to recent European trips by Taiwanese officials including its current vice-president and foreign minister, and a former president.

...

Beijing said it “respects the sovereignty of the European side in introducing and implementing visa policy”, but an “institutional loophole” had allowed frequent visits by Taiwan politicians.

...

The officials’ suggestion, the Guardian understands, was that allowing Taiwanese officials to enter a European country would threaten that country’s international relations with China.

In some cases they also referred to the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations, or suggested the European countries follow the UN’s example and bar all Taiwanese people from government buildings, the Guardian was told.

“Beijing’s application and interpretation of this regulation is bold,” said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, assistant professor at Taiwan’s National Dong Hwa University, when told about the moves. “It is Beijing’s interpretation that EU-Taiwan ties threaten EU-China ties. This is not at all the perception or reality in Europe.”

...

The [Chinese] note verbale said European countries should reject any “so-called diplomatic passports” issued by Taiwan, and “prohibit Taiwanese personnel from entering Europe to seek official contact and exchanges and trample on China’s red line”.

“China hopes the EU institutions and European countries will, out of the larger interests of China-EU relations and bilateral relations, make the political decision of refusing the entry of Taiwan’s so-called president or vice president (former ones included),” it said, also listing other officials.

The note cited visits by the officials to Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, Australia, Germany, Lithuania, Denmark, Estonia and Ireland, saying they “seriously undermine China-EU relations”.

...

“The European side … even indulged [vice-president] Hsiao Bi-khim to speak at the building of the European parliament and promote ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist claims,” it said, referring to a speech given by Hsiao to the annual summit of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (Ipac) in Brussels.

...

A spokesperson for the UK Foreign Office said: “Permission to enter the UK is determined solely by our own laws and immigration rules, which apply equally to those travelling from Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said officials’ visits to Europe were “entirely unrelated to China, and China has no right to interfere”.

“On the contrary, China’s use of various coercive measures against other countries and its threats of force against Taiwan, which undermine global and Indo-Pacific peace and stability and threaten the direct interests of the EU, is the real force damaging European international relations,” the spokesperson told the Guardian.

...

“I see this as another way to generate unease among member states that their relations with the [People’s Republic of China] might be at risk … and Beijing knows well that some EU member states are very keen to attract Chinese investment at present,” said Ferenczy.

The EU does not take a position on Taiwan’s status, and while it has formal relations with Beijing it also maintains “solid” unofficial relations with Taipei through parliamentary diplomacy and trade. Several European countries and the EU have trade offices that act as unofficial embassies in Taipei.

...

However in recent years the bloc has come under increasing pressure from Beijing, which claims Taiwan as a province of China, and intends to annex it – by force if necessary. Among its strategies to coerce Taiwan into accepting unification without conflict, Beijing puts intense diplomatic pressure on the international community to isolate Taipei from multilateral engagement.

...

Chinese officials are using a ‘highly specific’ interpretation of EU rules to suggest Taiwanese figures should not be granted visas, EU officials say.

Archived version

Chinese officials have been pushing “legal advice” on European countries, saying their own border laws require them to ban entry to Taiwanese politicians, according to more than half a dozen diplomats and officials familiar with the matter.

The officials made demarches to European embassies in Beijing, or through local embassies directly to European governments in their capital cities, warning the European countries not to “trample on China’s red lines”, according to the European diplomats and ministries who spoke to the Guardian.

The manner of the approaches varied – some to individual countries and some as groups, some by written note verbale (a semiformal diplomatic communication) and others in person. They occurred in November and December, and were at least partly in response to recent European trips by Taiwanese officials including its current vice-president and foreign minister, and a former president.

...

Beijing said it “respects the sovereignty of the European side in introducing and implementing visa policy”, but an “institutional loophole” had allowed frequent visits by Taiwan politicians.

...

The officials’ suggestion, the Guardian understands, was that allowing Taiwanese officials to enter a European country would threaten that country’s international relations with China.

In some cases they also referred to the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations, or suggested the European countries follow the UN’s example and bar all Taiwanese people from government buildings, the Guardian was told.

“Beijing’s application and interpretation of this regulation is bold,” said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, assistant professor at Taiwan’s National Dong Hwa University, when told about the moves. “It is Beijing’s interpretation that EU-Taiwan ties threaten EU-China ties. This is not at all the perception or reality in Europe.”

...

The [Chinese] note verbale said European countries should reject any “so-called diplomatic passports” issued by Taiwan, and “prohibit Taiwanese personnel from entering Europe to seek official contact and exchanges and trample on China’s red line”.

“China hopes the EU institutions and European countries will, out of the larger interests of China-EU relations and bilateral relations, make the political decision of refusing the entry of Taiwan’s so-called president or vice president (former ones included),” it said, also listing other officials.

The note cited visits by the officials to Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, Australia, Germany, Lithuania, Denmark, Estonia and Ireland, saying they “seriously undermine China-EU relations”.

...

“The European side … even indulged [vice-president] Hsiao Bi-khim to speak at the building of the European parliament and promote ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist claims,” it said, referring to a speech given by Hsiao to the annual summit of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (Ipac) in Brussels.

...

A spokesperson for the UK Foreign Office said: “Permission to enter the UK is determined solely by our own laws and immigration rules, which apply equally to those travelling from Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said officials’ visits to Europe were “entirely unrelated to China, and China has no right to interfere”.

“On the contrary, China’s use of various coercive measures against other countries and its threats of force against Taiwan, which undermine global and Indo-Pacific peace and stability and threaten the direct interests of the EU, is the real force damaging European international relations,” the spokesperson told the Guardian.

...

“I see this as another way to generate unease among member states that their relations with the [People’s Republic of China] might be at risk … and Beijing knows well that some EU member states are very keen to attract Chinese investment at present,” said Ferenczy.

The EU does not take a position on Taiwan’s status, and while it has formal relations with Beijing it also maintains “solid” unofficial relations with Taipei through parliamentary diplomacy and trade. Several European countries and the EU have trade offices that act as unofficial embassies in Taipei.

...

However in recent years the bloc has come under increasing pressure from Beijing, which claims Taiwan as a province of China, and intends to annex it – by force if necessary. Among its strategies to coerce Taiwan into accepting unification without conflict, Beijing puts intense diplomatic pressure on the international community to isolate Taipei from multilateral engagement.

...

Archived version

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According to Kyiv Police, the ninth-grade student entered a classroom wearing a mask and helmet after preparing them in advance and attacked a 39-year-old teacher and a 14-year-old classmate with a knife. Both victims were hospitalized with stab and cut wounds, and doctors are assessing the severity of their injuries.

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Police said the student later locked himself in a restroom and inflicted knife wounds to his arm and abdomen. He was taken to hospital and is receiving medical care.

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During investigative actions, law enforcement officers found messages on the suspect’s phone indicating possible communication with hostile foreign intelligence services, police said, without providing further details.

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Archived version

Shortly before Christmas, the new chief of [Secret Intelligence Service ] MI6, Blaise Metreweli, made her first public speech since taking charge. She chose as her subject the multifaceted threat posed by Russia, warning of the growing danger from Vladimir Putin’s regime. “We are operating in a space between peace and war,” she said.

...

The picture Metreweli paints is frightening: a scenario not of overt military strikes, but of covert “grey zone” assaults from every angle. The spy chief did not go into detail. We are all aware of the existence of planned sabotage, assassinations, hacking, cyber crime and drone attacks. Such concepts are well aired and are firmly embedded in the public consciousness. Less familiar, however, according to security experts, is the notion of economic warfare. Key to this, to use their parlance, are non-state actors – not Russian diplomats or entities formally associated with the Russian state, but private individuals, organisations, movements and companies who secretly act in Russia’s interest.

Some are ideologically motivated, while others do it for money, frequently being paid in untraceable cryptocurrency, like Jan Marsalek. Austrian-born Marsalek was COO of Wirecard, the German payment processing firm that collapsed in 2020 after announcing that €1.9bn (£1.65bn) it supposedly held in cash did not in fact exist.

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For almost a decade prior to its insolvency, Marsalek had been working for the Russian security agency, the GRU. His position at Wirecard gave him access to data and resources that were useful to the Russians. He used his seniority to develop pro-Russian links in Libya, and to encourage a flood of migration to Europe that was calculated to cause social and financial damage – all playing into Moscow’s hands.

After his exposure, following Wirecard’s collapse, Marsalek fled to Russia. In late 2023, Marsalek was named again as the coordinator of a Bulgarian spy ring operating in the UK.

Another example is petty criminal Dylan Earl, the ringleader in an arson attack on a warehouse in east London stocked with aid for Ukraine in March 2024. He was also recruited online by the Russian paramilitary organisation known as the Wagner Group.

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Harder to crack are the Russians or non-Russians working in the commercial field, in strategic industries critical to Europe’s defence and infrastructure, such as defence and energy, and acting in Russia’s interests, often under orders from the GRU or other Kremlin agencies. Security sources maintain that Moscow considers these actors useful as there is a degree of separation: deniability is fundamental to the strategy.

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The difficulty of tracking such activity can be seen in the case of Alexander Kirzhnev. The Russian is wanted by the Supreme Anti-Corruption Court in Ukraine, having been accused in absentia of organising a fraud against Ukraine by using a bogus US company to fulfil an order for ammunition.

The Ukraine state-owned firm Artem placed a multimillion-dollar order for 152mm and 155mm shells with a supplier based in Florida. Advance payment was made. All seemed well: a US firm was helping Ukraine’s war effort, no problem there. The trouble was, the Florida company had no ability to fulfil the order.

By diverting precious Ukrainian cash, taking up their time and effort, and making them think much-needed military supplies were coming when they were not, Kirzhnev’s alleged actions – whether under instruction or not – epitomise Russia’s goals in the “grey zone”: deniable private-sector activity that moves the Kremlin closer to its strategic objectives, sowing uncertainty along the way.

...

Archived version

Demonstrators raged in the streets of Iran into Saturday morning, defying an escalating crackdown by authorities against the growing protest movement.

An internet shutdown imposed by the authorities on Thursday has largely cut the protesters off from the rest of the world, but videos that trickled out of the country showed thousands of people in the streets of Tehran. They chanted: “Death to Khamenei,” in reference to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and: “Long live the shah.”

Crowds of protesters marched through the streets of Mashhad as fires burned around them, a show of defiance in the home town of Khamenei, who has condemned the protesters as “vandals” and blamed the US for fanning the flames of dissent.

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“We’re standing up for a revolution, but we need help. Snipers have been stationed behind the Tarish Arg area [a wealthy neighbourhood in Tehran],” a protester in Tehran told the Guardian via sporadic text messages sent via Starlink. The protester said many people had been shot at across the city, adding: “We saw hundreds of bodies.”

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Another activist in Tehran [said] that they had witnessed security forces firing live ammunition at protesters and saw a “very high” number killed, while human rights activists said the claims of police brutality were consistent with testimony they had been given.

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The Iranian Nobel peace prize winner Shirin Ebadi warned [...] that security forces could be preparing to commit a “massacre under the cover of a sweeping communications blackout”, and said she had already received reports of hundreds of people being treated for eye injuries at a single Tehran hospital.

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A video verified by Iran Human Rights group showed distressed family members looking through a pile of bodies in Ghadir hospital in Tehran on Thursday. The rights group said that the bodies were of protesters killed by authorities.

...

[Edit typo.]

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6579933

Archived version

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Today, the biggest news comes from Northern Europe.

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After months of unexplained damage beneath the Baltic Sea, Finland has moved into action by intercepting a vessel directly linked to the cable cuts. For the first time, a Russian operation that relied on distance and unclear responsibility has been exposed through enforcement rather than inference.

Finland intercepted and exposed a Russian-linked civilian vessel connected to the cutting of underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, marking the first time one of these grey-zone operations has been confronted directly at sea.

Footage released by Finnish authorities shows a controlled interception unfolding step by step in open waters, starting with Finnish patrol vessels pulling alongside and ordering the ship to slow and hold its course.

...

This incident fits into a broader Russian campaign targeting underwater infrastructure across the Baltic Sea, where power cables and data lines form the backbone of everyday life. Over recent months, multiple fiber-optic and power cables linking Nordic states have been cut or damaged under suspicious circumstances, often near known shipping lanes.

...

While there was broad agreement that these incidents were not random, the lack of direct attribution prevented authorities from acting beyond repairs and diplomatic warnings. The aim has created disruption that creates uncertainty, repair costs, and political hesitation without triggering a direct military response.

The method is simple and hard to counter, because civilian vessels move slowly along established shipping routes, blend into dense maritime traffic, and operate in areas where cables are known to run.

...

The breakthrough came when investigators confirmed not only that the vessel was operating along sensitive seabed routes during the cable damage, but also that it was carrying sanctioned steel products.

This turned a pattern of suspicion into a provable violation, allowing Finnish authorities to move immediately from monitoring to action using existing law. Instead of another case of accidental damage in busy waters followed by statements and quiet inquiries, Finland now had clear grounds to act openly and decisively.

By anchoring the response in documented violations rather than intent or attribution debates, Moscow's usual escape route of denial and ambiguity collapsed the moment the cargo was recorded.

...

For years, grey-zone operations have thrived because responses stopped at warnings, investigations, or diplomatic pressure. This case establishes a different precedent, as intelligence collection tied to legal preparation and immediate enforcement, allowing states to act publicly without escalating militarily.

Operationally, it lowers the threshold for boarding and inspection, politically it removes the need to argue intent, and legally it shifts the burden onto Russia to explain documented violations rather than deny them.

...

This case shows another path, as it shows that intelligence gathering, legal preparation, and enforcement can be combined into a response that exposes the operation without turning it into a military confrontation. Once a ship is boarded and its cargo documented, the shield that protects hybrid warfare disappears.

...

As an addition: A recent report exposed how Russia wants to drain Europe's investigative resources with its sabotage campaign, according to officials

Archived version

...

Today, the biggest news comes from Northern Europe.

...

After months of unexplained damage beneath the Baltic Sea, Finland has moved into action by intercepting a vessel directly linked to the cable cuts. For the first time, a Russian operation that relied on distance and unclear responsibility has been exposed through enforcement rather than inference.

Finland intercepted and exposed a Russian-linked civilian vessel connected to the cutting of underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, marking the first time one of these grey-zone operations has been confronted directly at sea.

Footage released by Finnish authorities shows a controlled interception unfolding step by step in open waters, starting with Finnish patrol vessels pulling alongside and ordering the ship to slow and hold its course.

...

This incident fits into a broader Russian campaign targeting underwater infrastructure across the Baltic Sea, where power cables and data lines form the backbone of everyday life. Over recent months, multiple fiber-optic and power cables linking Nordic states have been cut or damaged under suspicious circumstances, often near known shipping lanes.

...

While there was broad agreement that these incidents were not random, the lack of direct attribution prevented authorities from acting beyond repairs and diplomatic warnings. The aim has created disruption that creates uncertainty, repair costs, and political hesitation without triggering a direct military response.

The method is simple and hard to counter, because civilian vessels move slowly along established shipping routes, blend into dense maritime traffic, and operate in areas where cables are known to run.

...

The breakthrough came when investigators confirmed not only that the vessel was operating along sensitive seabed routes during the cable damage, but also that it was carrying sanctioned steel products.

This turned a pattern of suspicion into a provable violation, allowing Finnish authorities to move immediately from monitoring to action using existing law. Instead of another case of accidental damage in busy waters followed by statements and quiet inquiries, Finland now had clear grounds to act openly and decisively.

By anchoring the response in documented violations rather than intent or attribution debates, Moscow's usual escape route of denial and ambiguity collapsed the moment the cargo was recorded.

...

For years, grey-zone operations have thrived because responses stopped at warnings, investigations, or diplomatic pressure. This case establishes a different precedent, as intelligence collection tied to legal preparation and immediate enforcement, allowing states to act publicly without escalating militarily.

Operationally, it lowers the threshold for boarding and inspection, politically it removes the need to argue intent, and legally it shifts the burden onto Russia to explain documented violations rather than deny them.

...

This case shows another path, as it shows that intelligence gathering, legal preparation, and enforcement can be combined into a response that exposes the operation without turning it into a military confrontation. Once a ship is boarded and its cargo documented, the shield that protects hybrid warfare disappears.

...

As an addition: A recent report exposed how Russia wants to drain Europe's investigative resources with its sabotage campaign, according to officials