this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2025
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As opposed to what the headline could make you think, it’s not a complete ban on all REE exports. A total ban wouldn’t make much sense.
The REE business is big, and China can’t keep stockpiling these metals for long. Also, REE production is integrated to the rest of the industry, so you can’t just switch those factories off and expect everything else to keep on chugging along as usual.
China can afford to sit on these minerals for years or even decades. EU, US and Russia don't have that luxury.
Well what if you need to keep on producing more common metals in the meantime, and REEs are a byproduct. You would need to keep the REE factories running too.
If you end up with 100 tons of terbium and yttrium oxide sitting in bags out in the rain, it’s going to lead to some serious quality issues further down the line. Well, just shove them in a warehouse then?
You’ll need a big warehouse, and you need to keep building more of them every year as the stockpiles grow. Needless to say, there are some serious logistical problems with a total export ban. A partial restriction is more viable, because it gives China some time to figure out how to adapt.
In any case, the rest of the world needs these metals, and they are willing to bend to knee long before China runs out of mitigation strategies. It’s going to be a problem in China as well, but at least they’re not totally screwed.
The US manages to store 1.5B pounds of cheese it doesn't do anything with, I think China can handle constructing some warehouse to hold what it digs up from the ground.
especially since china has multiple vacant metropolitan complexes.