No Stupid Questions

A lot of other people have posted some really good stuff in terms of coping, and I think most of them are completely correct; it’s not something you can control, so it’s out of your hands and not really worth worrying about. That said, knowing that has never helped me stop worrying about something before, so I figured I’d type this up in case it helps. 🙂

Nuclear weapons have been a particular interest of mine for years. I’ve read most of the books out there on them, and I’m very familiar with the strategy involved in how they would be deployed in a conflict. I’ve also been to Trinity Site at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico twice, where the first nuclear weapon was tested, so I’ve seen their impact in person (I also have plans to visit Japan, and also the testing sites in Nevada, but haven’t been able to make those work out yet).

If a nuclear war happens, it won’t be the end of everything. They are big, scary, and should an actual full-scale exchange take place hundreds of millions (perhaps even billions) of people will die. It would be an absolutely cataclysmic event.

But that wouldn’t end everything.

A lot of people talk about how we have enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world, which is hyperbolic. The Earth has seen much worse than a nuclear exchange, and it’ll be fine. Overall life will also be fine; plenty of plants and animals would get wiped out, because it would be a mass extinction event, but a huge amount of life would survive and be just fine.

What people mean is that human life would be destroyed, and yeah, fair enough, we’d definitely have a major regression in civilization. But it wouldn’t kill everyone (probably nowhere even close to everyone), and humanity would continue to exist. The impacts of the dust kicked up by the bombs would probably cause some global cooling temporarily, similarly to a couple huge volcanic eruptions at the same time would, and life would become pretty difficult, but it won’t wipe us out.

If you live in a major city in the United States, Europe, Russia, or China, none of this really matters to you. If a nuclear war happens, you might get 10-15 minutes notice, but probably the first you’ll know about it is when an intensely bright flash happens. If you’re close enough, you won’t even have a chance to understand what it is. If you’re a bit further away, you might survive the initial flash of radiation, but be killed by the blast wave, or by burns caused either by the intense amount of heat released or by the radiation itself. The exact radius for this is going to vary based on exactly what type of warheads are detonated in your area, but we’ll say if you’re within a couple miles you’ll likely be killed within a few days because of that.

If you’re outside that second zone, you’re going to probably be okay, at least for a while. You might have some burns you can recover from, your lifetime risk of cancer might be a lot higher depending on where you were, and you may have other injuries related to the bombing, but you’ll probably survive long enough to help with recovery. Congrats!

You asked what you can do to prepare. Well, honestly, not a lot. I’d recommend preparing the same way you should for basically any other large-scale disaster. Ignoring radiation (I’ll get to it in a minute), a nuclear bomb’s aftermath is going to be similar to an earthquake or large fire. Keep a few days or a week of bottled water on hand for each person in your household (and maybe a way to purify water longer-term), have food supplies, some basic medical gear, and emergency lighting/communications equipment. If you’re really concerned about nuclear war specifically, add in some iodine tablets for each member of the household. If you do this, you’ll be prepped not just for nuclear war, but also any of the other much more likely disasters that may occur in your lifetime.

Now, as for the radiation question. Most nuclear weapons are not made to spread large amounts of radiation around. They absolutely will release radiation, but it makes the reaction less efficient, reduces yield, and massively increases cost per bomb. I’m not saying here that it’s not something to worry about or be aware of, but it’s a smaller problem than Hollywood and mass media would have you believe it is. Avoid eating or drinking things that are from directly downwind of an explosion, and try to not let any ash or particles stay on you/breath them in, and you’ve done what you can. Most of radiation exposure management comes down to keeping particles out of your body, particularly the lungs. The longer you’re exposed to radiation, the more likely it is that it’ll do something bad to you. The best remedy is to keep it out of your body as much as you can, and put distance between it and you so the inverse-square law can help.

I hope this helps a bit. Overall, even with global tensions rising, I think the chance of nuclear war is very very low. We’ve been very very close to at least a limited exchange before, and pulled through, and despite everything going on I think the chances of an actual nuclear exchange remains incredibly slim. If you want to prepare, pretend it’s like another large-scale (and much likelier) disaster, and prep for that.

I’ve skipped over some things that weren’t really pertinent, like actual nuclear war theory, and simplified other things, so if you want me to expand on any of this let me know! Nuclear history has been one of my special interests for years and years, and I enjoy talking about it.