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What experrs? American experts?
They're kind of forgetting the big elephant in the room that is the fact a lot of US foreign debt is owned by Japan and China, with the majority of the rest of it being held by countries that will be very very pissed off with this move.
If trump is stupid enough to pull the trigger, and those countries decide that a potential physical war is becoming inevitable, they'll for sure dump all of that debt, all at once; killing the US economy and it's ability to make war. War needs fuel. Despite Venzuela, Trump won't have enough of it once his economy tanks.
Yeah I think the ordering on that is China, Japan, UK, Canada in terms of the countries that hold US bonds.
A diplomatic delegation came to Canada recently and then Mark Carney went to China. Maybe just coincidence, or maybe not.
Tanking the bonds is essentially the economic equivalent of a nuke. You don't want to use it because there will be fallout which isn't good for anyone. But the US actually using military force on Greenland would be a circumstance where you might push the button on that. China has some business interests in Greenland, and generally the US just invading places based solely on the whims of a deranged old man is worse for everyone than the economic fallout from tanking the bonds.
Money would be a problem but not the worst problem, all of manufacturing and materials come from China and the remaining single digit percent is in Europe, if the US pisses both they wont be able to manufacture war even if they haf all of the money
Here's a recent article on the chances the USD continues as the world's reserve currency.
Ps it's not looking great.
https://www.ftadviser.com/content/5cbf339b-7c4d-464b-8c2a-0c7409e515a0
Archive link
this fills my heart with joy
Europe should prepare to tell Trump to go fuck himself.
What if I told you that was literally part of the plan? The groundwork for looking the USD was already in project 2025 and the dark enlightenment bullshit the tech feudalists masturbate to requires the balkanization of the US, and pulling a smash and grab on the USD will get us there within ten years. And if Trump makes it to next January they can kill him and we get ten years of "legitimate" Vance and by then it's well and truly over.
If there's a war, and the US is cut off due to international sanctions, they'll have to ship the oil all the way north, by ship, rail, or road, all of which would be VERY susceptible to attacks and sabotage.
We have more oil than we need already in the US.
We don’t have rare earth or battery materials manufacturing/extraction anywhere near the scale needed for a real war though.
But also Trump and Hegseth are fucking morons who’s wouldn’t smell a strategy if it took a shit on their faces.
And if it comes to strategic dumping of US bonds, on one side you have Mark Carney, a former central bank governor, and on the other Donald Trump, who played a successful businessman on television.
And if by ship, they're likely going to be straining the Navy between ports. Be a shame if something breaks too as we have less dock space available for repair than we did when we laid those keels.
He's also talking about operations in several other countries, and if he's talking about a few, he's thinking about a bunch more. He doesn't seem to understand that it's not a good idea to spread your forces and resources over multiple battlefronts.
He seems to think that the military is infinite, that he can just throw money at it and it can do anything. He's talking about a $1.5 TRILLION military budget (who is paying for that?), and he's going to need a LOT more personnel. That means at some point, he is going to demand a draft, especially if unemployment gets too high. It is already at its highest point since 2020.
America First used to mean we stay out of everywhere else, and concentrate on America, but Trump's version means America gets first dibs on everything, and if you don't want to play that game, we'll just take what we want.
That is a gain for the US, not a loss. No interest payments on the loans they've made, and no need to pay off the principal. Great!
The debt doesn't "go away", the countries sell it on the market, causing the price of us bonds to drop. That causes the yield (what it costs the us to service the debt) to go up. Borrowing becomes more expensive. Repaying debt or borrowing more to pay interest becomes even more expensive for the us.
Yes. This I agree. But the current administration has shown it is willing to ignore future consequences.
Higher yields are irrelevant if the project 2025 goal is to "Abolish the Federal Reserve" page 768
Those are not some remote future consequences, the downfall would be quite immediate
Less immediate than war with the EU or China.
You are forgetting one thing: no more possibility of selling US debt. And currently the US debt is above 100% GDP.
Yes. No new debt sold abroad. But also no need to raise debt to pay off existing debt.
Also rasing more debt is a future problem. Does this administration care about the long term? No.
I don't think you understand how inflation works...
Debt cancelling is a deflationary action. It reduces the money supply.
Dumping their bonds into the market isn't cancelling their debt. Its making all that debt available for OTHERS to buy. Supply goes up, value goes down.
In other words, if all of the US debt was out up for sale at the same time, is value of the US dollar would crater.
Supply is the same unless debt is cancelled. A weaker dollar makes it easier to pay interest.
"If you owe foreign banks $100, that's your problem. If you owe foreign banks $100 trillion that's the foreign bank's problem.”
That's not how markets work.
But you're clearly a troll just being intentionally obtuse for shits and giggles. It's on me for not having realised it earlier.
Have a good day.
If you think correcting someone's macro economic misunderstandings is trolling then you will be meeting many more trolls.
I'll trust the economists on this one. Honestly should have just done this from the beginning rather than trying to explain things.
source - https://www.investingdaily.com/137830/what-it-means-when-the-world-dumps-u-s-debt/
The number of bonds remains fixed (or reduces). Supply only increases if the US issues more bonds.
The quote is obvious bullshit. You can only have a surge in selling if there is an exactly equal surge in buying. One seller = one buyer.
Use your brain and don't just quote from random websites.
Care to provide a contradictory source? Or are you just going to say that anything that doesn't agree with you is "bullshit" without backing it up with actual economic sources?
Also, just to add another source that MAGA would find "legitimate", this is from Fox Business.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/chinas-trade-war-weapons-rare-earth-ban-us-debt-dump-could-cripple-american-economy-defense
But hey...I'm going to wait for your sources beyond "trust me, bro".
How do you think selling works. If you sell something, someone buys it from you.
A mass selloff also means that there was a mass buying.
Is THAT what you're having a hard-time grasping?!!
You do know that people put things for sale BEFORE the buying happens, right? It's called THE MARKET.
If you're selling a house, you put it ON THE MARKET and wait for someone to make you an offer.
Now let's say you have a house on the market and you want 400,000 for it. But in your city, a lot of people are moving out and there are far more houses on the market than there are buyers. So you have to lower your asking price in order to entice a buyer to take yours instead of someone elses. You DEVALUE your house to make the sale; take less money than you originally wanted. Doing so devalues the other houses for sale since they have to do the same, and the entire market for "Houses in city X" drops.
If, alternatively, you're the only house that's for sale in your city and there are 10 families looking to buy it, your house's value RISES. Rarity equals Value.
The same rule applies to stocks and BONDS. The US takes loans from other countries by selling them bonds. Those bond's value is based on a few different criteria (stability of the country's currency, etc...) But the important one here for your understanding is that the value is partially based on it's rarity. If all of the US Treasury bonds get dumped into the market simultaeneously, they're not rare anymore, and thus the value drops. If the value of the US Bond drops, it ripples through the economy.
It's supply and demand. The more there is of a certain thing ON THE MARKET, the less valuable it becomes. That's the rule for everything, from stocks and bonds and real estate, to beanie babies and pokemon cards.
Nope. A bond is not a house or a pokemon. All bonds are the same. Only price matters. Not rarity.
A selloff is also a buyoff. Both seller and buyer think they have the better deal.
Not cancelling, selling.
A dollar bill is debt that the govt owes to you. A bond is similar, just a bit different.
The US will still owe, just to different entities, but its figurative credit score will plummet at the same time it's in a debt spiral.
But let's make it simpler. Most of the world's USD is not in the US, but in cash reserves abroad. They hold it like gold.
What happens if the big players sell? It's already happening a bit, look at EURUSD and gold prices.
Yes. This is Trumps goal. Make foreign goods super expensive for consumers and manufacturers. Exactly what a Tariff does.
They are isolationists. They don't want debt held overseas.
This would make all goods more expensive, as it would directly devalue the USD. It wouldn't make people buy local, it would just make them buy less.
It's not what a tariff does, because that only applies to foreign imports.
Under both, local products become cheaper than foreign.
Not really. If the USD loses value, your neighbour will sell their goods to me for EUR because it will be worth more.
It will be like everyone in the US got a pay cut. It's a demand side effect, not like a tariff, and it's uniform, not like a tariff.
It's inflation after all.