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It’s dicey criticizing the FT because generally speaking they have some of the smartest people in money writing for them, but I think they may be somewhat overstating their position here.
They say:
But I think that if you removed the USA from Annex 2 of the COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING DECISION (EU) 2021/1753 and from the list of nations in Credit Quality Step 1 as specified in Article 180 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35, you would see private investors selling off US Treasuries rather than buying other reserves to counterbalance the new risk suddenly on their balance sheets.
They also say:
But if I’m an EU legislator, I’m going to be asking, if we’re worried no-one will buy US Treasuries now, when US-based lenders are eager to repatriate US Treasuries to leverage lending for AI data center construction, why do we think there is going to be more of a market if the US is in a shooting war with the rest of NATO? Better to get while the getting’s good, rather than wait for the loss of blood and treasure.
I think it's better to focus on the tail end of their arguments, as opposed to whether it's technically possible.
For example, forcing your bank sector to sell off a bunch of assets that are considered "risk free", comes with consequences.
Also consider that a majority of European leaders seem to be banking on the whole Trump era to blow over at some point soon. They hope to be able to rely on the US again and don't really want to do any lasting harm (probably).
"Risk Free" tells me your mental models havent been absorbing recent changes. A US that is attacking former friends and allies and especially itself, who abandons any pretense of law and order, of the neutral functioning of predictable markets in a storm of serial extortionism, undermining their own labour pools, capital markets and central banking while going on a wild spending spree of unproductive thuggery and grift. (Pauses for breath.) You call that risk free?
Don't be the dude left holding the bag. US dollars debt and equities are poison. Contracts aren't legally enforceable and courts don't practice law, just applied politics.
Get out while you can. This shithole is going to collapse quickly.
I agree that the later half of the article is the stronger portion; I was just surprised to see the lower quality front half under the FT masthead. I also suspect you’re right about what the EU will do, rather than my focus on what they can do.
But if the FT’s argument is that the EU doesn’t have the stomach for a strong euro and reduced exports, that’s something that can change quickly. If your assumption is you can wait out the mad king, doing nothing is clearly the cheapest option. But if your assumption changes to be that you cannot (which it seems more and more people are coming to that conclusion) then you want to be the first to sell. Legal hurdles would be a much stronger constraint than EU leaders’ preferences.