407
The economic cost of Brexit has just been laid bare – and it’s devastating
(www.thelondoneconomic.com)
this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
407 points (99.0% liked)
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I am shocked about how accurate my prediction was back before the election, I predicted that UK would lose about 1% per year over many years, if they voted Brexit.
And here we are now 10 years after the vote, and 8 years after Brexit was effectuated, and the relative decline to non Brexit is estimated at 6-8%.
If UK doesn't manage a free trade agreement with EU, I suspect this will continue for another decade, possibly at a slightly lower rate.
If UK does manage to get a good deal with EU, things will return to almost normal, but the investments that were lost this past decade will remain lost. So UK will continue from the lower level they are at now.
Don't worry, they won't. And if they do, it won't ever be as beneficial as their original EU membership was. Even a new EU membership won't come with all the exemptions and special privileges the old one had. Many things that were optional (or didn't yet exist) back when the UK originally joined the EU are now mandatory for new members. This is utterly unpalatable to UK politicians with their weird obsession about being the mighty empire of global Britain.
I absolutely agree, that ship has sailed in more ways than one. First UK does not have the advantages they did in the early 70's. Second their disruptive behavior in EU and Brexit reduce the political goodwill from European countries that also existed in the 70's.
So absolutely there is no chance in hell they will get a "half price" membership again.
Still they might be able to negotiate a deal more like Norway and Switzerland.
Not really, because that would mean accepting regulatory alignment and freedom of movement, and paying their share.
Which the people of UK seem to soften up to, especially now because conditions internationally have gotten a lot worse than when UK voted for Brexit.
There is no way UK can trust USA as a partner now, as they may have hoped for.
Keir Starmer has also expressed opinions that are very close to what Mark Carney said in his brilliant speech at Davos.
Most of UK has realized the times are no longer suitable for standing alone as a so called middle power. Closer cooperation is necessary, and EU is their natural closest partner, both geographically and politically.
There is little doubt we will se closer cooperation in the near future between UK and EU on both defense and economy.
Edit: Typo
The UK has an FTA with the EU, the TCA. It was negotiated as part of Brexit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement
No they have a "trade agreement" not a FREE trade agreement with open borders like Norway and Switzerland.