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What if today's Iran is resigned to a long, hellish war with the US? (responsiblestatecraft.org)

submitted 6 hours ago by supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz to c/world@lemmy.world

27 comments fedilink hide all child comments

If Washington’s participation in Israel’s June 2025 war with Iran elevated U.S. military force to a perfectly viable instrument of the United States’ Iran policy, the success of current talks would signal the formal undoing of that logic. But should the failure of talks pave the way for another full-scale war, the United States and Israel will be fighting an Iran vastly different from June. For the Iran of today appears to have made its peace with the grim conclusion that while a decisive slog with Israel and the United States is sure to be agonizing, it is preferable to the recurring attrition of repeated wars and a chronic strategic vulnerability that only emboldens adversaries to target Iran and its regional allies.

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[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

The only thing they can, and probably will do, is cause some losses to the Navy and any land troops. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, the US will take serious casualties if it goes into Iran. That won’t be enough to stop the invasion, or really even slow it down. Internal politics would be a far more likely reason to stop any open invasion.

No, if Iran does a serious amount of damage to the US it is going to have MASSIVE blowback in the US. It might not immediately translate into the US backing off but the idea that Trump will pay no political cost in real terms if Iran does serious damage to the US military I just don't think holds up.

Long term I think it will just make the rightwing even more war obsessed but that is independent of a direct tactical transaction going on here in political power. If Iran hits the US hard during the attack Trump will look worse and it will cost him and his allies materially.

In the US War Cycle we are at the Brenschluss, the point where fascists completely take over the war machine from the remnants of a decayed irrelevant professional/elite class and the centrist/establishment warhawks are temporarily all onboard just before the first massive catastrophe utterly destroys the coalition's image of power and once again we fall subject to gravity, same as everyone else.