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This is one of the reasons why Donald's idea of turning around, saying he won, and walking away couldn't work. Nothing prevents Iran from continuing to crush American interests in the region
I mean it would—if he actually stopped bombing them and helping Israel bomb them. Unilateral de-escalation only works if you actually de-escalate.
While the US backing off will be a necessary component of a de-escalation, Iran is under no obligation to start playing nice just because the US does. They're going to demand serious concessions before they unclench their fists and release their chokehold on the strait.
Trump can't just TACO his way out of this one. He either has to commit to a full scale invasion, or come to the table with a peace offer Iran will accept.
Since trump has bombed Iran multiple times during peace talks, Iran is not going to trust Mango Mussolini again.
Exactly. Which is why their demands are only going to be bigger now. They're going to assume that any concessions they get will only be good until next time Trump tears up the deal or attacks them in the middle of negotiations, so they're going to maximise the benefit they get for as long as they get it.
Why would they entertain peace talks at all? Israel has murdered Iran's top negotiator, and Trump is obviously compromised by Israel.
No, the smart play here is to just keep the straight closed to American and Israeli traffic and allies while looking for opportunities for their own decapitation strikes.
Once someone else is in power, then negotiations can resume.
Never put your enemy on death ground. If Iran decide to point blank refuse any notion of a compromise that basically leaves Trump with no other (face saving) option other than full scale invasion. Iran have negotiated very smartly throughout this whole situation, I expect they'll continue to do so.
Not even close, Iran has had its political and religious leader killed, the father of the new leader, so why would they stop even if the USA stopped?
US leaves, and GCC allies with Iran the same day. SoH open the same day. All GCC infrastructure safe. No reason for US companies to stop their GCC funded investments/infrastructure.
That would imply that the US would dismantle its bases throughout the region so that the Gulf countries would align themselves with Iran. Even if something like that could happen (doubtful), it couldn't happen quickly or under bombardment. US companies wouldn't maintain investments under those circumstances either, and the problem is the reverse investment, from the Gulf to the US.
P.S.: I'm not American, I had to look up half of those initials
An option that the US has to compensating Iran in exchange for peace, and then US paying for world peace, while keeping GCC control, is to just withdraw and try to pay, be nice to GCC, to keep them under their control umbrella with hope of returning to bases for new attacks on Iran. This cannot work, because Iran would stay angry at them. US bases are destroyed, and require repair $. Trump just proposed a 2027 budget with $600B increase in defense spending, 10% cut to social/health services, and $200B extra Iran war costs. Before the war, Dems wanted last healthcare cuts removed to reopen government.
There is a genuine threat to automatic Israel reparations funding, and if GCC are practical towards Iran cooperation, then Trump and repbulicans will spite them, and Dems may promote fewer health/social cuts instead of strenthening the absolute failure of a "US protection contract" for these nations. GCC would need to continue being Israel/US colony voluntarily sacrificing themselves to Iran superiority, instead of being practical. Their biggest customer, China, can assist in making them more practical in friendship with Iran and China.