this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2026
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[–] realitista@lemmus.org 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

This is true but realistically neither the RNB or EUR are anywhere near a position where they could take over this role without massive structural changes, and % of world reserves in $ are still a lot higher than they were even in parts of the 2010's. This is not something that will happen quickly if it does happen. It will take decades and the US will almost have to take part in bringing it about.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

The EUR absolutelly is - the EU is a big stable open economy with large Financial Markets a freely trading currency and deep Treasuries markets.

It's not by chance that over the last 2 decades mainly the EUR has taken a bigger and bigger slice of foreign exchange reserves away from the USD, with by 2025 the EUR being roughly 1/3 the amount of USD reserves (see here).

(That said, looking at that data, the EUR and USD foreign currency reserves have barelly moved since 2017)

Agree on the RNB not being ready - China's currency isn't freely traded and neither are their treasuries, and access to mainland Financial Markets is highly restricted. That's reflected on the above mentioned foreign exchange reserves where the RNB is but 1/10 of the EUR reserves.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

The EUR lacks

  • A single liquid equity market. All EU equity markets when combined don't even add up to a single mag 7 stock when it comes to market value.
  • An EU sovereign bond

As someone who actively invests in both continents and has lived half his life on each, I can tell you that the Euro has extremely meagre investment options compared to the US. No one will hold trillions of EUR in a reserve currency with such a lack of investment options and such a fragmented and difficult system to navigate. The lack of liquidity alone already counts it out for institutional investors. You can't invest in a market where you can't buy and sell freely.

Which is not to say the EU couldn't fix this and step up to the plate. They could create a eurobond and a single stock market (Germany is the main one blocking this). But even if the EU did manage this, they would have to accept a massive strengthening of their currency which would choke off exports, for which Europe still counts on. They would have to deindustrialize much of the same way the US did and go to a services economy. There are a lot of powerful lobbies that wouldn't go for this.

With Bretton-Woods collapsing, it might soon be time for this, but the EU is still quite timid when it comes to doing anything that can invite the ire of the US. Which brings me to the final point. The US has 7 times the navel assets of Europe combined. If the EU really pissed the US off, the US could just blockade them until they cried mercy. Changing this would take absurd amounts of money and time.