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His little operation convinced Europe to rearm and made Ukraine a security exporter. Now he's down in a bunker desperately looking for ways to save face before the tide turns furher against him.
No matter how you look at this Russia has lost and this is exactly why, even if you ignore ethics, dictatorships don't work long term. It just takes one failure like this to set back decades of work. It happens to every dictatorship eventually.
At least Putin took years to finally fail. Trump is managing into do it within his first couple of years.
Exactly this. Ukraine has started open cooperation with foreign weapons companies, inviting them to come test their autonomous systems in real battlefield conditions. Given that the rest of Europe is arming up against potential Russian hostility, the opportunity to test your new weapons against their most likely opponent is a golden ticket. My guess is a lot of these new designs are proving effective, and Putin is realizing that any more 'special military operations' will be taken as proof positive that Russia has turned conquistador and met with overwhelming force by most of the rest of Europe.
It's also possible he's just running out of troops. The last estimate I saw was something like 340,000 Russian casualties...
You missed a million! Circa 1,339,190 Russians killed or injured since the invasion began.
Their sources likely count differently. Dead only, vs. dead + wounded.
You wanna sink a war machine? It's quite easy. Just drown them in wounded troops, not corpses. Corpses don't move, corpses don't eat, corpses don't need to be cleaned or bathed, corpses don't need expensive surgery and therapy to get back to living normally, corpses don't need teams of people to look after them. Wounded troops do. Wounded troops are expensive, corpses are cheap.
Flood the machine with wounded. Make every advance so miserable and destructive to the budget and supply line that any sensible general will eventually say "fuck it!" and pull out. That's what Ukraine has been doing, unfortunately Putin isn't sensible and has surrounded himself with sycophants.
this is exactly it.
It's far better for Ukraine to blow off arms and legs than kill soldiers. The more wounded sent back to RU, especially those who can't be rehabbed back into combat readiness, the better. And the more of such people who get into RU society the better- SHOW the RU people the cost of the war. Don't let it be some abstract concept like war is to Americans.
Just for context, America lost about 58,000 soldiers in 10-12 years in Vietnam, and about 4000 on 20 years in Afghanistan.
Putin has lost 1.3 MILLION+ soldiers in a only 2-3 years. He's gone from a voluntary military, to a draft, to commuting prison sentences, to literally snatching military age males off the streets, to hiring mercenaries. He's quickly running out options for his war machine.
Woohoo!
Disturbingly some of his female fanatics -- including those in the Sakhalin islands -- are still convinced he's doing a swell job.
I also fear that he could possibly use something worse just to win.
I think/hope he knows that if he uses nukes on Ukraine the entire rest of the world will unite against him faster than you can say 'dasvidanya'. Or at least that someone around him understands that...
If by "security exporter" you mean "providing training and weapons to Israel and to terrorists in the Sahel"
No.
Yes.