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Still more chance of it happening than a viable third party, that's the argument.
Why? It's longer and less obvious than "establish party now run for president tomorrow," but with a progressive leftwing third party a clear path to success exists. Now technically one also exists within the Democratic Party, but to take that path you'd need to antagonize the old guard so much that you might as well not be a party member at all, and they'll still demand ideological or practical compromises to keep you in the party. This will lose you legitimacy with your base in the same way many progressives are souring on AOC, either significantly curtailing the effort or destroying it entirely. The problem with working within the party is simple: You'll never get anything done by appeasing neoliberals.
You have to do this regardless. You cannot have a viable third party without pulling a majority of Democratic voters away from the existing party. There simply isn't enough votes to beat the GOP by starting a new progressive only party. And if you think you're gonna pull conservative voters, hello Kamala Harris' campaign manager.
We have a greater advantage in the primaries than we do during the general election, but my fellow progressives just refuse to fucking show up. Bernie absolutely could have won ,even with the DNC putting their thumb on the scale. You can say it's rigged against us, but the numbers don't lie, progressive voters haven't shown up to vote and it only benefits the GOP.
Of course, but my point is that if they're gonna hate your guts and sabotage you anyway, you might as well make sure you have a free hand to take them on rather than pointlessly try to appease them. This way you give them less leverage over you, or in other words you don't give them consent to sabotage you to their heart's content. Of course they can still try, but for example tools like party bylaws and appeals to party unity cease to mean shit. This is crucial because while neoliberals like to play dumb, they're not dumb; when they come to wreck your movement they're going to go for the jugular. See for example how AOC lost the Democratic Socialists of America's endorsement by compromising on Israel and how the DNC is trying to kick David Hoggs out of the party. The way I see it is that while there are a few paths for a progressive group trying to take over/cannibalize the Democratic Party, all of them are mutually exclusive with compromise with neoliberals.
Sounds about right but can you provide those numbers?
Establishing a party is very hard, in a country as big as the US it takes decades.
On the other hand, the political establishment will push back against a third party outside the Democratic Party just as much as inside. I honestly don't know what's the right path.