Transcript
Title text: This is how you all fucking sound
[A smug tech bro wearing a sideways cap, watch, chain around his neck stands in front of a data center by a lake with dead fish. A smoke stack blows pollution into the air]
Tech bro: AI is already here, there’s no going back.
[A smug man in a suit with cigarette in hand stands in a restaurant while two disgruntled diners cough from the smoke]
Suit: Smoking indoors is already here, there’s no going back.
[A smug man in a top hat and suit stands in a factory with two sad and dirty children]
Hat: Child labor is already here, there’s no going back.
[A smug plantation owner stands in front of a field with with two angry slaves]
Plantation owner: The Atlantic Slave trade is already here, there’s no going back.
I'd like to believe too, but it doesn't really track when you watch what these companies are actually doing.
Of course an LLM on its own isn't going to become an AGI. Anyone with a braincell can see that. These orgs aren't so high on their own farts that they ignore this.
Nearly all of the actual uses today aren't just the LLM, but the tooling built on top of it, the LLM is the bit that you can plug into the past century of computing developments to enable much greater autonomy.
It's true to say an LLM in isolation isn't going to become AGI, but it's also looking very likely that an AGI will feature an LLM as a key component.
That's what's happening in parallel to the model development, tooling and harnesses that make the overall system more capable. If it can be done by a computer (or by extension a sufficiently advanced robot), the LLM can do it too with a bit of integration work (which it is very able to do on its own today, with minimal steering). If you can test for something being correct in any way, that too can be ultimately hooked up to an LLM as another input to push it back onto the desired path when it veers off.
Frankly I'm starting to feel like for most people it'll feel like it's years off until the day it happens. I don't see remotely enough people taking the risk seriously in time to do anything.
You make some interesting points.
But...the vast majority of corporate decision making for the last ten years is solid evidence that they are 100% high on their own farts.
Interesting point. But the folks giving these things autonomy are mostly just creating huge messes, right now, and then claiming victory and taking a quick bow before the stage caves in.
The places we do see success are where no human could be patient enough - which is the stuff computers were already better at, than us.
As you point out, all that can be fixed.
But it's all already not worth the money invested, before they build dozens more data centers in the hope that they can fix it. There's just massive amounts of magic thinking going on, by investors.
I do agree with your point that there's probably somethings that are useful and some that are dangerous on the other side of this.
Completely agree, but in the gap left by "vast majority", these guys don't seem to be behaving entirely like your conventional consumer squeezing companies, they seem to be playing a much more collusive game at the very least
That's the flaw in the common view of this. You're looking too short term. The second someone can offer to replace a business owners employees for half price, it's basically infinite money.
That is what they're pouring all the money in for: a chance at that prize. A chance at replacing all paid work with an automation they own.
Wheels are a key component of my car I guess.
You know what, that's actually a very good example.
The wheels are the interface between the engine and any kind of° surface, with no prior knowledge of those surfaces
We've got an engine of basically everything that followed the industrial revolution until now.
An LLM can very much function as the wheel to marry a surface to that engine.
°Horizontal, don't be a smart ass
LOL.
In my "analogy" you just invented all of the actual complexity of the car in the same hand wavy way you claim AGI will just coalesce from the ether.