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Cuba is near paralyzed at the moment, I am genuinely beginning to believe they'll not see out the summer at this rate, be it through some sort of horrible Venezuela style capitulation, or full on collapse of socialism and regime change.
the revolution survived the special period, it will survive this as well. idk what sort of horrible capitulation you mean
A lot has changed since the special period. There is no longer a Castro to lead the country through the struggle, and the US has shown itself very capable of regime change in Venezuela and has it's sights now firmly on the island. Cuba has no allies, is isolated and vulnerable, and the people are undergoing more hardship than they have in decades, all while the government itself is not exactly at the peak of it's popularity right now among Cubans who have to live through this. The conditions are objectively really bad, if not much worse than it was under the special period, with constant electricty blackouts and fuel shortages imposed by the US blockade, all under much weaker leadership than they had at the time.
If you think that the revolution was only held together by Castro then that is textbook Great Man Theory. There is more to a revolution than just its initator. We also have no proof of regime change in Venezula, the elected vice president is acting president, that is contenuing on the chain of command not a regime change, lets not just belive the US's saying that Venezula is soly working for them, remember they have a not great hand, and where not ML before the smash and grab lets give them time to figure out how to play this.
I would be curious aswell to see where you are getting the pupularity reports for Cuba, or why you think Cuban's who liberated themselves from the US, and still today in many cases have better health and education outcomes than the Yanks would think the solution is rolling over to the force inflicting the harm. Lets not just count the Imperalists Chickens before they hatch... let alone are seen to be a real threat
Remember Comrade, there is constanly a war for hearts and minds, the propoganda war, dont just listen to the Capitalists telling you its hopeless.