The further into the future you are trying to predict the weather, the more the reliability drops. The last time I heard a meteorologist talk about it, it was 5 days into the future for a specific location. Anything more than that was as reliable as reading tea leaves. You can say it'll rain in Asia 10 days from now but you cannot say with any certainty it'll rain in this village.

The climate which we ruined will provide us with punishment. Warmer oceans will give us stronger tropical storms. But they've gotten pretty good at detecting and outlining their likely paths. That sort of predicting is likely to improve with more storms and more data. Another suitable punishment is torrential train causing flash flooding. In the places with good satellite cover, they can see that and warn people with an hour's lead time or thereabouts. The time span is short but the prediction accuracy is good.

We as consumers are not good judges of the weatherpeople. We look at our phones and form an opinion. But we don't investigate where the data came from, which LLM may have added its hallucinations, and what other corners may have been cut to get us this information, which we don't pay for. So we see it's pissing down outside, the forecast was for blue skies, ergo the weatherpeople are getting worse at their job. When it is more likely the quality of the free data declined or somebody asked ChatGPT and Claude.