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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2026
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It might also be that Altman and Musk are deliberately lying, intentionally feigning agreement to encourage other models to slow down while they quietly ramp up development.
It seems all the US models want their AI to be the one that becomes hostile, escapes confinement and attempts to dominate the world.
(In reality, they want their own AI to be the one that is able to obediently dominate the world, which is just as bad a scenario for the rest of us.)
lol the xkcd is sort of funny... even when faced with some varying flavors of doom humans feel the need to flex on people they think are dumber than them.
I don't think Randall Munroe would argue others are dumber than he is, only that he's seeing a scenario that is not (as frequently) reflected in fiction and thought experiments as the classic AI gains sentience, escapes containment and takes over scenario.
I'd point to Linus' Law, Given enough eyes, all bugs are shallow. (Wikipedia notes the law's validity is confirmed empirically, but refuted in analysis.) This applies to more than software. Right now, election enthusiasts in the US are combing election law and procedure for ways the November election can be thrown, and ways to counter that scenario quickly.
I was thinking about the misprogramming scenario of AI escape. This implies hyperintelligent AI is dangerous even when everyone using it is benign and has non-adversarial intentions. Essentially an AI will need to be coded with an ethics system such as that of a general (or high-ranking soldier in the US) who deliberates on operational action and its consequences, whether the operation is legal, or would cause undue harm in its execution.
Right now, AI in its current development is... whimsical, at best. That is to say, it ignores rules the way it hallucinates facts. And AI can be manipulated to ignore rules through adversarial input, so AI is not ready to operate dangerous machinery.
I don't see how anything they do can possibly affect what Chinese labs are doing. And that's the only alternative to American labs right now. So, who are they going to convince exactly?
It's possible they are going to push the chinese labs to do the same. Doubtful it will happen. So they'll go back developing AI and pretend nothing happened
The problem for them could end up being that the economics simply don't work. If more capable models are more power hungry, then operating them might be too expensive to justify. Or it could be that there are diminishing returns, and they simply can't make a model that's significantly better than the current frontier.
I doubt the Chinese companies will comply, even if they agree on the surface. Whoever releases the most powerful model when the truce ends, will have the advantage. If anything, research and training will continue, releases will slow down.
They have no leverage over Chinese labs, and China has every incentive to continue developing this tech. The only real explanation I see here is that they're starting to get into diminishing returns territory, investors are getting edgy, and the costs of running this stuff are exploding.
i'd say that'd be a worse development for humanity if it ends up obeying the epstein reich