this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2026
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[–] logi@lemmy.world 2 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

With 10 IOUs it’s unlikely [they’ll] all default, so the asset is safer and your risk models can assess this.

This is where my spider senses go off. Are we assuming that these IOUs defaulting are independent events? Even though they're from 10 crack heads talking about stealing the same generator?

[–] trolololol@lemmy.world 1 points 5 hours ago

Yeh and they all hang out with each other and bribe the same ~~police~~ senators and bulk buy their ~~crack~~ dreams from the same ~~dealer~~ 3 AI companies

[–] panda_abyss@lemmy.ca 3 points 9 hours ago

Yes, probability gets much messier with correlated events, and most models assume independence. You can vary intensity/hazard in counting processes, but really there's not much you can do at a certain point.